Although college football will make its triumphant return today, the Week 0 card isn’t very impressive. So, if you find yourself bored and missing football again once Florida State and Georgia Tech wraps up, why not turn back to the MLB? Let’s dive into our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 24
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 24
Check out our betting experts!
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Clayton Kershaw O/U 5.5 Ks: The Los Angeles Dodgers have been very conservative with 36-year-old LHP Clayton Kershaw, allowing him to throw no more than six innings or 83 pitches. While Kershaw is averaging only 3.8 strikeouts per game, his rate of 7.1 K/9 is less of a red flag. He has racked up six strikeouts twice so far, too. Against this brutal Tampa Bay Rays lineup, I can’t not back him.
The Rays take a lot of strikeouts. They should take even more than usual tonight. As a team, they rank 25th in strikeouts taken per game (9.2) and 26th in strikeout rate versus LHPs (25%). Those are both red flags, but it’s their recent performance that makes me so confident in Kershaw.
Since the trade deadline, Tampa Bay ranks 28th in strikeout rate versus LHPs (31%). Deadline acquisition Christopher Morel deserves some credit for helping bloat that rate, as he owns a rough 25.6% strikeout rate (25th percentile) on the year.
Kershaw may not get a ton of run on Saturday, but he should pitch more than enough innings to cash the over for his strikeout prop today. The Rays come into tonight’s action having taken 13 strikeouts last night and an average of 12.3 over their last three games.
I bought the over 5.5 for +112 at FanDuel and laddered it up to eight at +500. While I doubt that Kershaw will see any more run than what he has been getting since his return from injury, the odds are just too friendly to up.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Clayton Kershaw Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts +112 at FanDuel
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If you’ve tailed me for any part of this MLB season, you’ve won a little — and begrudgingly lost heaps — targeting America’s greatest scam artist known as Colin Rea.
And like Mouth from the Goonies so eloquently said, “I’m taking it back. I’m taking them all back.”
That’s right, friends, we’re taking it ALL back today. Brent Rooker is going to get it all back for us today.
Rooker is a matchup nightmare for Rea — well, for most pitchers this year — because of the way he absolutely mashes the sinker and four-seamer.
He’s hitting an absurd .418 with a .716 SLG% against the sinker, which Rea throws most to right-handed hitters; and .265 with a .515 SLG% against the four-seamer. However, Rooker is sporting a .310 xBA and .663 xSLG against the four-seamer this year, so he’s actually underperformed against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant.
So, we’re definitely putting a little bit of yum-yum on the Brent Rooker home run at +375 (BetMGM) as well today.
If you don’t believe me, check out this video of former MLB pitcher Trevor May breaking down how good Brent Rooker has been this season.
Rea, who is in the bottom third of the league in barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage, has been the beneficiary of good luck despite being hit hard. He ranks second in ERA differential in all of baseball with an expected ERA of 4.80 and an actual ERA of 3.52. The smoke and mirrors can’t continue forever.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Brent Rooker Over 1.5 H/R/RBI +110 at DraftKings
