2023 MLB Awards Odds Update: Razor-Thin Margins in Both Cy Young Races & More

The MLB All-Star Break presents a great opportunity to take a look at where the MLB awards odds stand. One award is already virtually sewn up barring injury or catastrophic downturn in performance, and two others have clear frontrunners. Other major awards, however, are wide open with as many as five or six true contenders. And don’t forget that you can go to DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Awards Odds Update at the All-Star Break

American League MVP

There is not much to break down here – Shohei Ohtani’s Baseball-Reference wins above replacement (bWAR) pace would give him the highest single-season total for an American League player since Pedro Martinez in 2000. Second place right now is Rays shortstop Wander Franco, who did not make the All-Star team initially (he has since made it as an injury replacement) and has 2.2 less bWAR than Ohtani.

As far as the odds go, Ohtani is -800 to win MVP, and the field is +500. There is no real value in betting any individual player at this juncture, but targeting the field could be worth a flier on something crazy happening in the second half of the season.

National League MVP

The National League is more open, but Ronald Acuna has still established himself as the clear favorite at -330 on DraftKings. A couple of Dodgers in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are at least within shouting distance at +350 and +1100, respectively. That said, the Braves are clearly the best team in the NL right now and Acuna is at the center of that, plus he is the only player in baseball within 2.0 bWAR of Ohtani at the All-Star Break.

Matt Olson does not have the player value metrics to compete with his teammate, but given he leads the National League in home runs and RBIs, it is a little surprising to see him so far down the list at +4500. Do not be confused – if anyone on Atlanta is winning, it’s probably Acuna – but Olson has a case to be in the same ballpark as Freeman and Betts, and in another era he may have been leading this race given his offensive production.

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National League Rookie of the Year

This race comes next because it has a clear favorite who is also a solid value since his odds are not nearly as short as they should be. Corbin Carroll is just -300 to win NL Rookie of the Year despite leading all rookies in bWAR by a comfortable margin and earning a starting spot in the All-Star Game in Year 1. He also leads all qualified NL rookies in pretty much every offensive category.

The only thing standing in Carroll’s way is the excitement around Elly De La Cruz. The hype is warranted, but even De La Cruz’s meteoric 30-game intro to MLB is a step below the 86-game sample Carroll has put forth. De La Cruz is not out of the race; if he keeps his play at a high level and Carroll demonstrably dips, this will get closer down the stretch. As is, however, Carroll is close to wrapping this up, and the odds do not reflect that fact at all.

American League Rookie of the Year

Now come the truly up-in-the-air award races.

Three players are neck and neck for American League Rookie of the Year: Rangers third baseman Josh Jung (+120), Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida (+250), and Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson (+300). Like Carroll, Jung is leading in a lot of offensive categories and has also earned the recognition of an All-Star start. However, he is also in the middle of an absolutely loaded lineup, whereas Yoshida has emerged as perhaps the best individual hitter on his team. Henderson is probably a step behind these two at the moment, as the individual advantage he has over Yoshida (defense) he does not have over Jung, who is himself a strong defensive player.

However, the Orioles currently have a better record than the Rangers despite being second in the AL East. If Baltimore sures the Rays for the division title and Henderson continues to be arguably the Orioles’ best all-around player, this race will stay tight. For now, all three present solid value at plus money.

National League Cy Young

Both Cy Young awards could go in any direction at this point.

In of bWAR, Clayton Kershaw is first among NL pitchers, followed closely by the Giants’ Logan Webb. However, those two are second and sixth in the odds, respectively. Instead, Zac Gallen (+200) has a slight edge on Kershaw and Spencer Strider, who are both at +350. Gallen is the current National League leader in WHIP and FIP and is tied with Strider for the lead in wins, while Kershaw leads in ERA and narrowly trails Chicago’s Justin Steele for the top ERA+ in the National League. Strider, of course, is running away with the strikeout title and is only a few ticks behind Gallen in FIP.

All three have their strong cases and weak points, and both Cubs starters in Steele (+1700) and Marcus Stroman (+1500) have strong enough metrics to keep themselves in the discussion despite Chicago’s place in the standings. The really interesting spot in the odds right now is Blake Snell, who is fourth at +950 despite walking more batters than any pitcher in the NL. Granted, he has a ton of strikeouts and is keeping his ERA down, but the walks are leading to a 1.224 WHIP that is barely above league average. For now, stick to the three guys at the top of the odds, but keep an eye on the Cubs pitchers as well as Webb (+1500) in case those three slip.

American League Cy Young

This race is even more wide open, with five pitchers shorter than +1000 at the break. Gerrit Cole leads in bWAR by 0.5 wins over Framber Valdez, but Valdez is ahead of him in ERA, ERA+ (first in AL in both) and FIP (second behind Kevin Gausman). As such, Valdez is first at +200, followed closely by Gausman, who is the AL’s top strikeout artist. That said, Gausman is well behind in bWAR (2.1 to Valdez 3.3, Cole’s 3.8, Nathan Eovaldi’s 3.0 and Shane McClanahan’s 3.0).

Speaking of McClanahan, he has the ERA, ERA+ and team record to keep himself high up in this race (fourth at +850), but his FIP ranks outside of the top 12 in the AL, indicating he may be getting lucky despite an 11-1 record. Meanwhile, Valdez’s 7-6 win-loss is not impressive, but his individual metrics – including a much-improved strikeout rate – are unassailable.

Eovaldi is also well within this race, with similar numbers to Valdez across the board and no real hiccups anywhere like McClanahan’s FIP or Gausman’s WAR. This is a legitimate five-man battle that could easily add a sixth in Ohtani (who is currently +1200).