It’s Caesars. Let’s dive into our top Dinger Tuesday home run picks today, but first, we’ll run through how Dinger Tuesday works. If you tail one of our picks, you could win $25 — click here to find out how!
Here’s how FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | July 30
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR/9 allowed (source):*
Edward Cabrera (MIA): 2.1 xHR/9
8.9 xHR in 38.1 IP
Gerrit Cole (NYY): 1.9 xHR/9
7.5 xHR in 35 IP
Griffin Canning (LAA): 1.5 xHR/9
18.5 xHR in 110.2 IP
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Citi Field (NYM vs. MIN)
17 mph to LCF, 79° F, 76% humidity
Fenway Park (BOS vs. SEA)
15 mph to LCF, 83° F, 60% humidity
Citizens Bank Park (PHI vs. NYY)
12.5 mph to CF, 82° F, 74% humidity
*Minimum of 25 IP.
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If you tail one of our expert home run picks today, you could win $25 — click here to enter!
@nd_joyce Randy Arozarena – SEA: +340
@is_sirois Rafael Devers – BOS: +340
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Juan Soto – NYY: +280
@gehrenberg Anthony Santander – BAL: +390
@Loughy_D Francisco Lindor – NYM: +430
Home Run Pick Analysis: Rafael Devers
@is_sirois Rafael Devers – BOS: +340
The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Seattle Mariners tonight, and it’s RHP Luis Castillo taking the bump for the M’s tonight. Castillo has coughed up 15.9 xHR on the year but only 13 at Fenway Park. However, there are 15 mph winds blowing out at Fenway tonight, which should more than make up the difference of the park’s dimensions.
Castillo’s splits point to the right way to attack him tonight. The veteran RHP is allowing LHBs to slash .273/.337/.467 with 10 home runs. This benefits no one more than Rafael Devers, who is slashing .336/.424/.714 against RHPs. In a nine at-bat sample against Castillo, he is slashing .333/.333/.778 with a home run.
Devers is a great target for more than just his splits. He sports a .289 xBA (92nd percentile) and .565 xSLG (96th). He has mashed 23 actual and 21.5 expected home runs this season. While only 21 of those would’ve counted at Fenway Park, again, the wind should help him out. He is averaging 0.23 home runs per game, giving him raw odds of +333 to go yard.
Let’s back Devers to go yard (+340 at BetMGM). Even if he can’t pop against Castillo, the Seattle bullpen is more beatable than some realize. Playing at T-Mobile Park half the time no doubt skews their actual stats — the Mariners’ team SLG (.363) ranks first while their team xSLG (.392) ranks fifth.
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