FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for August 6 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR/9 allowed (source):*

Max Meyer (MIA): 2.1 xHR/9
6 xHR in 26 IP

Keider Montero (DET): 1.8 xHR/9
7.5 xHR in 43.2 IP

Kyle Freeland (COL): 1.4 xHR/9
9.2 xHR in 59 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Nationals Park (WSH vs. SF)
11.5 mph to LCF, 91° F, 55% humidity

Coors Field (COL vs. NYM)
11.5 mph to RCF, 89° F, 28% humidity

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. PHI)
9 mph to LCF, 75° F, 47% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

NYM @ COL
o11.5-105

SF @ WSH
o9-105

MIL @ ATL
o9-105

@nd_joyce Matt Olson – ATL: +390

It wouldn’t be a proper Dinger Tuesday if we didn’t target Colin Rea to give up a home run. This man owes us more money than millennials owe in student loans with whatever magic beans he’s been working with this season. 

Tonight, we’re getting some of our coin back with a +390 Matt Olson home run at Truist Park. The regression is comin’ hard tonight for Mr. Rea. 

Rea is getting absurdly lucky this season. Just how lucky? 

Of all pitchers in baseball, he currently ranks as: 

The No. 4 pitcher with the biggest discrepancy between his actual ERA (3.59) and expected ERA (4.92), which is a difference of 1.33 runs. 

The No. 2 pitcher with the biggest discrepancy between his actual batting average against (.233) and his expected batting average against (.276) — a difference of .043

The No. 7 pitcher with the biggest discrepancy between his actual slugging percentage allowed (.396) and expected slugging percentage allowed (.458) — a difference of .062

So, needless to say, he’s been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. He’s given up 10 home runs to left-handed hitters this season, and 11 of Matt Olson’s 18 homers have come against righties. 

It’s going to be pushing 90 degrees in Atlanta tonight with about a 10 mph wind blowing out to right field, which favors the pull side for Olson. Let’s not even waste any time and put one into the stands in the first inning to cash us out. 

@is_sirois Francisco Lindor – NYM: +310

The New York Mets are in Coors Field today, which is always a boon for batters. But importantly, it’s LHP Kyle Freeland taking the bump for the Rockies today, who has allowed 1.4 xHR/9 on the year (and 1.5 xHR/9 in Coors Field). Freeland’s .292 xBA (3rd percentile) and 5.8% walk rate (83rd) make him a phenomenal target for MLB player prop bettors.

Freeland’s biggest struggles have come against RHBs, as they are slashing .306/.345/.509 with nine home runs over 216 at-bats. Last year, RHBs slashed .311/.355/.545 with 26 home runs over 488 at-bats. This should benefit Francisco Lindor immensely.

Lindor, a switch-hitter, is slashing .264/.319/.536 with eight home runs in 125 at-bats versus LHPs. He has another 10 doubles against them. If Lindor played every game in Coors this year, he’d have 26 home runs as opposed to his actual total of 22.

Aside from the stadium, we’re also benefiting from the weather. The forecast calls for 11.5 mph winds blowing out through RCF, so even if Lindor can’t pop as a RHB versus Freeland, he might be able to do so more easily as a LHB versus a RHP who comes out of the bullpen.

Colorado’s bullpen ranks 17th in home runs allowed (50) and 30th in hits allowed (456). Let’s back Lindor for multiple bases (-159 at FanDuel).