The Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday night. Neither team has a particularly impressive pitcher on the mound: Boston will send out Brayan Bello (5.01 ERA) and Seattle will send out Marco Gonzales (4.42 ERA). With a total of 9.5 runs, scoring will happen — but will it start early? Few bets are more fun than those on Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) markets. They can provide an immediate payout and offer instant gratification for gamblers and sports fans alike. Let’s lock in tonight’s best YRFI bet.
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Best Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) Bet & Prediction | Mariners-Red Sox
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners: +110 | Boston Red Sox: -130
Over 9.5: -102 | Under 9.5: -120
YRFI: -113 | NRFI: -113
Both starting pitchers in this game have struggled. Brayan Bello and his 5.01 ERA make for a juicy target, especially when considering the advanced stats — his 5.07 xERA reveals that he has struggled less than expected. The same is true for Marco Gonzales. His 4.42 ERA is already bad, but his 4.62 xERA reveals that things should probably be worse for him. Both pitchers also own grades worse than 50 in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score. Let’s fade them early in Wednesday night’s Mariners-Red Sox game.
We’re not just backing this YRFI bet because the pitchers aren’t great — both teams happen to have potent offenses. The Seattle Mariners rank 15th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .325. The Boston Red Sox rank ninth at .331. Although the Mariners rank only 20th in YRFI rate (28.6%), their wOBA is worse than their xwOBA, which points to some positive regression in their future. The Red Sox rank a compelling fifth in YRFI rate (39.5%) and lead the MLB in YRFI rate at home (56%).
The one factor likely keeping this YRFI bet from having much shorter odds: Seattle’s starter, Gonzales, throws lefty. The Red Sox have fared worse versus lefties than righties this year but still own an impressive team OPS of .742 against them. Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers, the first two players in Boston’s usual batting order against lefties, combine to get on base 65% of the time against left-handed pitching. Justin Turner or Masataka Yoshida should be able to get one of them across home plate.
I’m not in love with the price on this Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) wager, but relative to the odds of -140 (58.3%) at DraftKings Sportsbook, the -113 (53.1%) at FanDuel Sportsbook looks like an absolute steal. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this YRFI bet priced the same. Those yet to at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) Bet: Mariners-Red Sox -113 at FanDuel
