The surprisingly plucky Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Detroit Tigers in Michigan to begin Wednesday’s MLB schedule. The books are giving the home team an edge, largely because of who they’ll trot out on the mound: ace Eduardo Rodriguez. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Wednesday’s Pirates-Tigers action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet.
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Best Pirates-Tigers Bet & Prediction: Ride with Eduardo Rodriguez
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates: +145 | Detroit Tigers: -170
Over 7.5: -115 | Under 7.5: -105
The Tigers opened as a solid favorite for Wednesday’s action because of their advantage on the mound. Ace Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4-2 record and an elite 1.57 ERA. Pittsburgh’s starter, 43-year-old Rich Hill, owns a respectable 3-3 record and a 4.35 ERA. After a strong start to the year, Hill has an 0-1 record and 5.42 ERA through his last two trips to the mound, which came against the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies.
Rodriguez has flashed some impressive stuff in Detroit this year, but he is far outperforming reasonable expectations. He owns a team-high grade in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score of 57.7, making him the fourth-best pitcher in the division, and slotting him well ahead of Hill (50.1). But because Rodriguez’s xERA slots in at a still-impressive 2.60, his hot start is likely unsustainable. That said, Hill’s xERA slots in at 6.58, a whopping 2.23 runs worse than his actual ERA, so Rodriguez has less to worry about regression-wise.
But for whatever advantage the Tigers have on the mound, the Pirates have one behind the plate. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average (.330), while Detroit ranks a lowly 27th (.304). Both teams have performed worse than their xwOBA thus far, leading Pittsburgh to rank 20th in runs per game (4.29) and Detroit to rank 28th (3.56). But with Rodriguez on the mound, this isn’t a great spot for positive regression from Pittsburgh’s bats. It’s a much better regression spot for Detroit.
Let’s target a team runs and moneyline parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday afternoon’s early game. The Tigers are rightfully favored with Rodriguez on the mound, and we’ll trust their offense to do enough damage against Hill for the team to score a much-needed win. We’ll also back Rodriguez to control the Pittsburgh offense from the mound by backing the Pirates to stay under 3.5 runs. The Pirates have stayed under that number in 12 of their last 13 starts.
Best Pirates-Tigers MLB Bet: Tigers Moneyline/Pirates Under 3.5 Runs +115 at DraftKings
