The San Diego Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the second game of a four-game series early on Saturday afternoon. The Padres are slight road favorites with star LHP Blake Snell expected to start. Let’s dig into today’s Padres-Phillies odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Padres-Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction: Total Has Value Today
Padres-Phillies Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Padres: -120 | Phillies: +102
Padres -1.5: +125 | Phillies +1.5: -150
Over 10: +100 | Under 10: -122
Although LHP Blake Snell has more name recognition than RHP Tijuan Walker, these teams are evenly matched on the mound. Snell’s 2.85 ERA is inflated from his 3.94 xERA. His ability to beat expectations may stem from the fact he plays in San Diego’s Petco Park, the pitcher-friendliest stadium by park factors over the last three seasons. Walker’s 4.02 ERA is right in line with his 4.03 ERA.
San Diego’s advantage stems from its offense. Although the Padres have underperformed this season, data suggests they’ve gotten unlucky. The Padres rank 11th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .325, which is ahead of their 15th-ranked wOBA of .318. The Phillies rank 18th in xwOBA at .318, slightly above their 12th-ranked wOBA of .321. Over the long term, the Padres should have a slightly better offense than the Phillies.
Despite both Philadelphia and San Diego boasting league-average offenses, both teams haven’t met the market’s expectations. The Phillies are 46-34-9 to the under, slightly better than the Padres, who are 49-35-6 to the under. The Phillies are also 20-13-5 to the under in Philadelphia, while the Padres are 23-16-3 to the under when playing on the road. The Phillies are also 7-2-1 to the under with a double-digit total.
Pitching-specific trends point in a similar direction. Snell and Walker have both taken the mound 18 times this year. Both pitchers have seen their starts end with a final tally of more than 10 runs just four times apiece. For Snell, two of those games came on the road, but for Walker, only one came at home, which is where he’ll play on Saturday. We can still lock in the under 10 runs at -122 (54.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s do so before that number disappears.
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Best Padres-Phillies MLB Pick: Under 10 -122 at FanDuel
