Things are winding down for another long MLB season but not without a bunch of playoff races tightening each day. It is not always about teams this late in the year when picking NRFI plays, as both pitchers and hitters can start to wear down. Even a big name on a playoff-bound team can have his moments of looking more like a fifth starter. The goal here remains to identify the largest gaps in matchups between starting pitching and a team’s top three hitters. Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets across the board for Monday, Aug. 21.
First-inning bets are some of the most enjoyable sweats in the MLB betting business. If you want to start making money on your NRFI and YRFI picks, positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper today — new s can get their first month for 70% off.
Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies YRFI (+102, BetMGM)
The Giants are essentially punting this game when they need to make up some ground on Philadelphia. They will start an opener and move to the bullpen, with hopes the Phillies bats are on the cold side of their rotating extremes. Unfortunately, that will not be the case for San Francisco, as Philadelphia showed a sign of life or two late in last night’s loss to the Nationals. The bats are starting to come back to life, and that is a bad sign for anything bullpen-related for the Giants. Aaron Nola goes for Philadelphia as he tries to stabilize a season that has seen him pitch anywhere from an ace to a dud. The Giants have some tough outs atop their lineup and should not fall right into Nola’s 25.4% strikeout rate. Between the Giants going opener to pen and the Phillies sending their most inconsistent pitcher tonight, anything at plus money for a YRFI is a great bet.
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics YRFI (+104, BetMGM)
The Royals are dead last in their division, 46 games under .500, and have been dead for months. That is still not as bad as the A’s right now. The best way to sum up tonight’s game and series might simply be these two teams are playing for money in contracts. That’s it. The good news in sending a bunch of younger guys to the plate with nothing but their futures to play for is getting immediate results against bad pitching. Paul Blackburn has done an irable job in keeping baseballs from getting launched out of the park, but he is still beatable at the plate, with a .252 xBA. Yes, his strikeout rate is not horrible at 22.9%, but it comes in spurts and he will have to get at least two to keep the opening frame scoreless. Tucker Davidson is the best culprit for allowing runners and runs in this scenario, as he is coming in with just a 21% strikeout rate on the year. Davison is also struggling with , posting a 334 xwOBA and .278 xBA. The A’s are dangerous against bad pitching and will certainly find a way on the basepath if their starter does not give up a run first.
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks YRFI (+107, BetMGM)
Two teams with playoffs on the mind clash in Arizona. The focus in this game is on the offense, rightfully so after looking at the pitching matchup. The home team will shuffle out Slade Cecconi for just his third start this year. It has not been great in his previous two, and now he faces an offense as good as any team in the AL. The Rangers mix power and hitting for average while limiting strikeouts — not a great formula for a pitcher still getting his feet wet in the majors. The Rangers counter with Jordan Montgomery, who has had plenty of mileage to determine he is just not that good. Struggling with a 22% strikeout rate combined with a .252 xBA, expect Montgomery to give up an early base hit, then watch Arizona wear him down for an early run. Mistakes will be made, which equals baserunners, which equal runs.
