Tonight I’ve identified three pitchers from three different games as strong candidates for positive expected value (+EV) with the best MLB strikeout prop bets today.
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Pitcher Props Today: Best Strikeouts Picks for Thursday, Aug. 8
MLB Strikeout Prop: Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Anderson has managed to maintain a decent ERA despite troubling underlying metrics. His 3.05 ERA looks solid, but his 4.19 xERA and 4.81 xFIP suggest his performance should be worse.
A woeful outing could very well come to fruition this evening against the Yankees. This team is always capable of getting pitchers taken out of starts prematurely — and that’s what we’re hoping for. New York has a 105 wRC+ and a 21.4% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season. Over the past month, while its strikeout rate has increased to 24%, its wRC+ has also risen to 121.
In his previous start against the Yankees on May 29, Anderson pitched five innings and allowed four hits and one run while recording four strikeouts. His xFIP for that game was 6.98. I expect the Bronx Bombers to execute this time around and cause enough damage to limit Anderson’s length on the mound.
Strikeout Prop: Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at Circa)
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler Anderson strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Strikeout Prop: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts
The betting market is showing significant interest in the under for Kremer’s strikeout prop. Earlier today, the best price was around -140, and it has since moved to over -160 at some shops.
It’s no shock to see people fading Kremer. His xERA shows 5.02, and his xFIP is 4.43. Plus, he has a 10.5% barrel rate, a .347 xwOBA and a .212 xISO. Furthermore, his rate and swinging-strike rate (percentage of strikes that were swung at and missed) reveal Kremer to be subpar. His rate is 80.7%, while his swinging-strike rate is 8.7%. The league averages for these metrics are 77% and 11%, respectively.
Kremer will be up against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks in the top 10 for strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (20.5%). And over the past month, Toronto’s stats against righties have improved to 110 wRC+, .160 ISO and .750 OPS.
Look for Blue Jays batters to stay disciplined and consistently put the ball in play.
Strikeout Prop: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-157 at BetRivers)
For the best price currently available, check out our Dean Kremer total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Strikeout Prop: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Montgomery has been a consistent fade candidate this season, and I’m sticking with that strategy tonight.
His 6.37 ERA, 4.78 xFIP and .356 xwOBA don’t inspire much confidence. Neither does his extremely low strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.3%. Montgomery is averaging only 3.2 strikeouts per start and has stayed under the 4.5 strikeout mark in 13 of 16 starts this season.
Facing a Phillies offense that leads in wRC+ (152), wOBA (.389), and OPS (.915) against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days, Montgomery’s prospects don’t appear promising. Plus, the Phillies’ strikeout rate has dropped to 18.7% during this period.
OddsShopper’s MLB betting model projects a 61% win percentage for this prop, with the true odds being -155. Although the market offers only a slightly better price, it still aligns with my projection that Montgomery will stay under this strikeout mark.
MLB Strikeout Prop: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150 at Fanatics)
For the best price currently available, check out our Jordan Montgomery total strikeouts live odds page!
