We have an early island game on this NBA-free Monday, and it’s a big one: Arguably best lineup in baseball putting their former White Sox starter on the mound against another former White Sox starter, and we get to catch it early in the day. Let’s get to it with a Parlay Builder.
If you’re interested in how access our parlay builder for $7.48 (50% OFF) this week with code “POSITIVE”!
MLB Same Game Parlay: Caesars Parlay With Dylan Cease & More
We are going with our typical same-game parlay strategy we turn to when building two-leggers. One, we are going with value compared to the market, and OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Padres-Braves.
Leg #1: Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Total Bases
Starting with some offense, Jake Cronenworth‘s total bases under is popping as the top player prop for this early game. Now, Cronenworth is off to a good start in these early months of the season, posting a .829 OPS and an ISO of .211. Those numbers both indicate consistent upside for multiple bases.
But today Cronenworth is facing a rejuvenated Reynaldo Lopez who has, go figure, turned into a super-duper ace with the Braves in 2024. Lopez flamed out in Chicago as both a starter and a reliever, but with Atlanta he has an ERA of just 1.34 and a WHIP a tick over 1.00.
The advanced metrics are kind to him as well: 3.00 FIP and an ERA+ 211 points ABOVE AVERAGE. And he is holding hitters to an ISO below .100 — that means basically no one is hitting for power against him. Granted, it’s only seven starts, and the back of the baseball card suggests Lopez will level out eventually. There haven’t been signs of it yet, however.
Cronenworth has multiple total bases in exactly half his games this year. Now facing a rolling pitcher, it’s fair to project him a bit below that 50% mark today.
In fact, OddsShopper has Cronenworth at 66% to record one or zero total bases today. It’s heavily juiced to -179, but with the True Odds at -198, this play is still 3.6% +EV on its own.
Leg #2: Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Now we turn to the high-risk, high-reward value driver of the parlay.
Like his former teammate, Cease has been locked in through his first handful of starters, striking out 11.1 hitters per nine and keeping the bases clear to the tune of a 0.782 WHIP. He can’t quite compete with Lopez’s ERA+, but 159 (59 points above average) is pretty strong too.
Cease also has struck out at least eight in three straight starts and at least seven in all but two of his nine outings. So A) why is his line at 6.5 strikeouts, and B) why are we going under?
Again, it’s about the market and the True Odds. Yes, Cease has a 57% chance of beating 6.5 strikeouts, but the odds of him failing to do so are +143 — and OddsShopper’s True Odds are significantly lower at +133. That gives us a 4.2% edge on the under.
There is also the whole “playing the Atlanta Braves” thing. The lineup isn’t necessarily posting the high-end offensive numbers it did in 2023, but few teams are stronger top to bottom and it could easily chase Cease before he gets 15 outs, especially at home.
It’s a risky play, but it gives this parlay strong +278 odds overall and keeps the total expected win rate in the range of 30%. All told, the expected value on this Padres-Braves SGP is 7.73% positive at DraftKings, which is all the way down to 3.17%.
MLB Parlay Today: +278 at Caesars Sportsbook
Want full access to our all-sport parlay builder? Subscribe to OddsShopper — new s can even get their first week for 50% off ($7.48) by using code “POSITIVE” at checkout! After your discount period, you can pay by the week ($14.95) or by the month ($49.95), whichever is more convenient for you and your bankroll!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
