After an 8-2 run last week, the props to watch column started off with a win last night — Zach McKinstry knocked in a double and cashed OddsShopper’s market-based model doesn’t see much value in the MLB games you can watch today, which are Braves-Phillies and Dodgers-Angels. Without further ado, here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Freddie Freeman.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Freddie Freeman, Orlando Arcia
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies | 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS
Player to Target: Orlando Arcia
Let’s start with my favorite MLB player prop to watch on tonight’s slate. Atlanta’s shortstop, Orlando Arcia, has looked exceptional against Philadelphia’s LHP Ranger Suarez (1-2). He owns an OBP of 71.4% with one hit and four walks. This year, Arcia owns an elite 1.442 OPS against left-handed pitching with 13 hits and eight walks.
We like Arcia because he gets on base. However, we’re not backing him to get a hit in this spot. The odds for him to so are -155 (60.8%) at DraftKings. That just isn’t profitable. Instead, because Arcia can get on base and usually bats ninth against left-handed pitching, we’re trusting him to score a run, likely courtesy of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Matt Olson.
I have some more thoughts on how to best incorporate this play into a same-game parlay that you can read here, but I’m perfectly fine with playing this one as a straight bet with odds of +150 (45.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves have owned left-handed pitchers like Suarez this season.
Best MLB Player Prop: Orlando Arcia To Record a Run +120 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels | 10:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Player to Target: Freddie Freeman
The Angels will start LHP Reid Detmers (1-5) tonight. His 4.48 ERA and 4.38 xERA don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but he seems to have gotten things together after a slow start to the year. Detmers owns a 3.24 ERA cross three starts and 16.2 innings pitched in June. With the Angels getting a day off after their series against the Royals, we’re backing Detmers and the bullpen to shut down Freddie Freeman.
Freeman, a lefty, has performed extremely well against left-handed pitching this year. He owns 29 hits, 18 runs and 23 RBIs against them in 99 plate appearances. However, this is a big deviation from the norm for Freeman, especially with regard to RBIs. He totaled only 53 hits, 32 runs and 24 RBIs against left-handed pitchers last season in 201 plate appearances.
Let’s fade Freeman on the player prop markets tonight. We can get him to go hitless at odds of BetMGM? First-time s can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 Bases, Runs & RBIs +105 at BetMGM
