We’re in the dog days of summer, but that won’t stop me from giving out my best MLB picks today (August 23) from Lindy’s Locks on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. For up-to-date news, follow ne on Twitter to get my best bets and more recapped prior to lock.
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Best MLB Picks Today – August 23
You can also watch our best MLB picks today, and other content (video below). If you prefer, you can watch it on YouTube.
Miami Marlins (RHP Sandy Alcantara) at San Diego Padres (RHP Seth Lugo)
- I’m in the business of being quick to react when I think a pitcher is turning the corner, and I am going to be bullish on Alcantara for the rest of the season.
- Alcantara has a .263 xBA, a 20.9% strikeout rate and a 52.3% ground ball rate this season, but his velocity is improving, which has led to some improved numbers.
- Alcantara this season vs. last 30:
- 2023: 21.1% strikeout rate against LHB, 20.7% against RHB.
- Last 30: 23.8% strikeout rate against LHB, 25% against RHB.
- Alcantara this season vs. last 30:
- There are not a lot of lefties in this Padres lineup, and Alcantara has an expected .145 ISO against righties.
- Seth Lugo’s strikeout rate is also going up over the last 30 days, 30.9% against LHB.
- .216 ISO against LHB. Miami has a lot of lefties in this lineup that can pop.
Lindy’s Lock: Marlins Moneyline (+110)
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Boston Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale) at Houston Astros (RHP Jose Urquidy)
- Yordan Alvarez may miss this game after slamming his hand in a door.
- Chris Sale: 33.9% hard hit percentage, .210 xBA, 28.5% strikeout rate — phenomenal stuff across the board when healthy. Advanced metrics are fantastic.
- Sale hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of the last six games.
- Urquidy: 20.6% strikeout rate, .249 xBA, 14.2% average launch angle. Getting too much respect here but is good at limiting hard from time to time.
- Better than even money on another moneyline. Get on these early, expect these lines to move away from these numbers by first pitch.
Lindy’s Lock: Red Sox Moneyline (+102)
