With industry-leading tools as our allies, it’s time to look at Eric Lindquist’s best MLB picks today (August 22) from his daily Lindys Locks on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. For future focus on such things, even for guys such as Blake Snell, follow on Twitter where the best bets and more are all recapped prior to lock.
Nonetheless, let’s get to Eric’s best MLB picks today in a nice, digestible form.
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Best MLB Picks Today – August 22
You can also watch our best MLB picks today, and other content (video below). If you prefer, you can watch it on YouTube.
New York Mets (Tylor Megill RHP) at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder RHP)
- Megill: Only reason he’s back in the bigs is because the Mets traded away all their arms. Poor numbers, including a .379 xwOBA, .495 xSLG.
- Bryce Elder: 17.6% strikeout rate with a .257 xBA, but the 6.5% barrel rate and 53% ground ball rate gives him a bit of hope to hold the Mets offense in check, however the Braves have a league high 121 WRC+ against RHP.
- Dog our on the ML with this game.
- 10.5 O/U has massive disparity across the books right now, especially between DraftKings and FanDuel. These are the spots we want to hammer.
The Pick: LOCK: Over 10.5 total runs (-102)
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Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo LHP) at San Diego Padres (Blake Snell LHP)
- Blake Snell: skips Monday and gets a better matchup on Tuesday and somehow we have a worse number on the board.
- Blake Snell 32.8% hard hit percentage, 31% strikeout rate – as long as the walks don’t add up, the Padres should should smash.
- Jesus Luzardo: A solid 27.7 k rate. But runs into a Padres team that should run out a lot of righties. Some poor underlying numbers as well, including a .433 xSLG, an 11% barrel rate and a 42.7% hard hit percentage.
- I know San Diego has been a disappointment, but this is still a good team and we’re getting plus money on the run line.
The Pick: LOCK: San Diego Padres -1.5 run line (+115)
San Francisco Giants (Kyle Harrison LHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies (Taijuan Walker RHP)
- Taijuan Walker: .325 xwOBA, 19.3% strikeout rate. Not my favorite back of the season, I’ve been hot and cold with him.
- Kyle Harrison: 22-years-old, recent call-up. Minors numbers include 105 strikeouts through 65 ⅔ innings. Ridiculous. Carries a 4.63 ERA, but thats from the PCL which inflates ERA numbers.
- Neutralizes key bats in the Phillies lineup with lefty-on-lefty matchups in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
The Pick: Like: San Francisco Giants ML + 130
LA Dodgers (Bobby Miller RHP) at Cleveland Guardians (Noah Syndergaard RHP)
- Bobby Miller: We have backed him for strikeouts of late. 46.3% ground ball rate. 99.2 MPH four seamer, 98.8 MPH sinker – love the velocity. Continuing to back up with some K-props and a moneyline. Would be a stone cold lock because this guy should be way better than he is.
- Noah Syndergaard: You can run on him, you can hit for power on him. .376 xwOBA, .516 xSLG – horrible.
- Thought we’d get a better number on this than -120, so Im only putting a half unit.
The Pick: Like: LA Dodgers -1.5 run line (-125)
