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Best Giants-Pirates MLB Betting Pick & Prediction: Finding the Value Bets in Series Finale (July 16)

Updated July 16, 2023 | 8:52 am CDT by Adam Peri

The San Francisco Giants are one of the most surprising teams in baseball. There was little expected from this team heading into the year, but they have a 51-41 record and are deep into the NL playoff race. They will look to continue their winning ways against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. A win for the Giants would mean a series sweep over the Pirates before they head out to Cincinnati to take on the Reds. First, let’s look at Sunday’s Giants-Pirates finale to make the best prediction and MLB best bet!

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Best MLB Giants-Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction: Value Bets in Finale

Giants-Pirates Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Giants: -141 | Pirates: +120
Giants -1.5: +112 | Pirates +1.5: -136
Over 9: -117 | Under 9: -104

The Giants and Pirates will kick off tomorrow’s MLB action with an early game on NBC’s Peacock Network. There will not be anything flashy about this one, but the Giants-Pirates game does feature two steady hands on the mound. The Giants starter is Alex Wood, who has been a consistent arm in their rotation for several years since coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a 4.68 ERA in 2023 across 13 appearance, nine of which were starts. He has never been anything to write home about, but he can eat innings and provide solid work at the big league level. That is certainly the case against a weaker team like the Pirates.

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Osvaldo Bido will be on the hill for Pittsburgh. He is receiving his first taste of major league action in 2023, and while Bido is hardly a top pitching talent, he has also been a steady hand for the Pirates. Bido has a 4.44 ERA in a small sample of six outings and five starts. He has put up nearly a strikeout per inning despite dancing around 10 walks. His job will be to provide a strong three to five innings for Pittsburgh before handing it over to their bullpen. Bido has not gone more than four innings since late June despite decent results in two of his last three outings (one being a relief appearance).

One key for Wood and Bido is the weakness of both offenses in this game. The Giants rank 20th in baseball in overall team offensive WAR according to positive expected value on a run total derivative.

Kelly Criterion staking method, it is worth wagering about .5% of your bank roll.

Best Giants-Pirates MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-143) at BetRivers

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