It is a Friday in April, and that means there is a full slate of MLB picks to wager on. Let’s take a look at a few of the matchups on the schedule and break down the best MLB bets for tonight with Lindy’s Locks.
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Best MLB Bets, Expert Picks & Predictions | April 14
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Madison Bumgarner is set to take the mound for Arizona, and he has not been good since ing the Diamondbacks. His xERA is over 9.00 in 2023 through two starts, and his performance has been trending downward for several seasons. Miami’s lineup has been hitting left-handed pitching well this year, with a 109 wRC+ and .282 batting average. On the other side, Trevor Rogers has struggled out of the gate, and the Diamondbacks have been hitting lefties well too, with a .294 batting average and 112 wRC+. That makes the Marlins and the Diamondbacks two of the top 11 teams in baseball against southpaws.
It is very likely a book throws up an 8.5 at some point. If it’s inside of -115, fire that to the moon.
Best MLB Bet: Over 9 Runs (LIKE)
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Taijuan Walker is on the mound for Philadelphia, and he has been struggling with his control, walking eight batters in nine innings this season. He will face Connor Overton, who has been miserable to start the season, with a 10.13 ERA and a 10.3% walk rate. The Reds have a below-average 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but they get a boost from playing in a small, homer-friendly ballpark. The Phillies, meanwhile, have been hitting righties well, with a 111 wRC+. I like a single-game parlay of Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run — which he did 36 times against righties last year — and the Phillies to win on the moneyline.
Best MLB Bet: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run & Phillies Moneyline (LIKE)
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Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals
These teams have right-handed starting pitchers who do the same thing in completely different ways. While Cal Quantrill of the Guardians relies on sinker, cutter and changeup with a top speed of 93 mph, Trevor Williams of the Nationals uses nearly 50% four-seamers and some changeups. Still, they arrive at similar numbers across the board.
The major difference lies in the lineups of the two teams. Cleveland’s lineup does not strike out much, receives a lot of walks against righties and is slightly below average against that handedness, while the Nationals have a league-worst 55 wRC+ against righties. It’s chalky, but it’s correct: Leans towards Cleveland’s moneyline and hope for the number to improve slightly before placing the bet. However, the books are also aware of the Nationals’ poor performance, so the bet may have to be attached to another play.
Best MLB Bet: Guardians Moneyline (LEAN)
