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Best Home Run Picks Today: FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday — Let Freedom Ding!
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics | 7:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Matt Vierling at FanDuel
Someone is going yard against Oakland’s LHP JP Sears today. Sears has allowed 19 home runs and an MLB-high 21.6 expected home runs this season. All but two of those home runs went to RHBs, so let’s target one of Detroit’s: outfielder Matt Vierling.
Vierling has shown plenty of power this year. He ranks a respectable fourth on the roster in home runs (7) but jumps to third in expected home runs (7.1). However, he also leads the active roster in expected weighted on-base average at .344, slightly ahead of the team’s home run leader, Spencer Torkelson (.343).
Torkelson is a chalky Dinger Tuesday option, so I recommend getting exposure to Vierling instead. He comes into this game hot — he has a pair of triples over his last two outings — and slots in at a much longer price. We can buy Vierling at +630 (13.7%) and will still get a $5 bonus bet back if Torkleson goes yard at +390 (20.4%).
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Matt Vierling +630 at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Matt Olson at FanDuel
This may come as a surprise to some, but star RHP Shane Bieber is a sharp target on this Dinger Tuesday. Although he has a solid 3.48 ERA, that masks his unimpressive 4.70 xERA. Bieber has given up 12 home runs and 13.3 expected home runs this year as well. He ranks in the lowly 10th percentile for hard-hit rate and in the sixth percentile for fastball velocity.
Bieber’s struggles have primarily come against LHBs. Lefties have ed for eight home runs and 19 extra-base hits against Bieber, good for a .797 OPS allowed. The Braves have plenty of left-handed power, but we’re just going to keep this one simple and target Matt Olson at +300 (25%).
Olson’s odds aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible for the MLB’s runner-up in both home runs (28) and expected home runs (26.2). We’ll also get credit if any other of this high-powered Atlanta lineup go yard as well. The Atlanta Braves pummelled Minnesota for five home runs in the first three innings last Tuesday, so let’s hope for a similar showing tonight.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Matt Olson +300 at FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Pick: Kevin Kiermaier at FanDuel
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Like Bieber, Gioltio is a pitcher with plenty of name recognition who has underperformed this year — at least power-wise. He has given up 16 home runs and 15.5 expected home runs on the year. RHBs and LHBs both have eight and a relatively similar OPS, so LHB Kevin Kiermaier, who has four home runs and 3.8 expected home runs, isn’t a bad target. For Dinger Tuesday purposes, it helps that Toronto’s starter, RHP Chris Bassitt, has allowed 13 home runs and 13.5 expected home runs.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +777 (11.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +900 (10%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Kevin Kiermaier +900 at FanDuel
