You couldn’t ask for a much better pitching matchup at Dodger Stadium tonight. It’ll be Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw up against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly in this NL West battle, and OddsShopper has the best Diamondbacks-Dodgers MLB pick to consider below.
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Best Diamondbacks-Dodgers Odds, Pick & Prediction
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Probable Pitchers: Merrill Kelly (ARI – RHP) at Clayton Kershaw (LAD – LHP)
The current MLB odds have Los Angeles favored at -185 on the moneyline for Tuesday night’s matchup against Arizona. The over/under is at eight runs, and it’s no surprise to see a relatively low total posted given the kind of success Kershaw and Kelly have had throughout the season.
Kershaw has been great when healthy in 2023, going 11-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 115 strikeouts and just 26 walks across 107.1 innings of work. As expected, though, the Dodgers have been ultra-careful with their star southpaw since he returned to the mound in late June, as he hasn’t thrown more than 71 pitches in any of his three most recent outings.
This is not the easiest of spots for Los Angeles against an Arizona team that has a confident Kelly on the mound and still has everything to play for in a tight National League Wild Card race, yet the baseball odds are still very much in the Dodgers’ favor here.
Kelly, who’s 10-5 with a 2.97 ERA on the year, takes the hill for the Diamondbacks fresh off his most dominant outing of the season in the team’s 3-2 win over Cincinnati. He pitched seven shutout innings and allowed only one hit while striking out 12 with no walks, but he had to settle for a no-decision. It should also be noted Kelly was pulled after throwing 86 pitches due to cramping in his leg.
Los Angeles comes in with an 81-49 overall record and has won four of their last five. They’re getting unreal production out of Mookie Betts (.312 average, 35 home runs, 93 RBIs) and Freddie Freeman (.340 average, 24 home runs, 87 RBIs), and Max Muncy (31 home runs) and J.D. Martinez (25 home runs) have contributed in a big way too. Martinez has been out injured and will return soon, but that hasn’t slowed down the Dodgers all that much, as they enter Tuesday night having scored at least five runs in six straight games.
For Tuesday Night, OddsShopper is honing in on Kelly, and more specifically looking closely at a couple of his posted unders in this encounter with a potent Los Angeles lineup.
It tends to be tough sledding for whoever’s facing the Dodgers — they have only lost four times in the entire month of August — and that’s likely a big reason why the OddsShopper model shows an 11 OS Rating and +6 EV for under 17.5 pitching outs for Kelly tonight, along with an OS Rating of 7 and +4 EV for under 5.5 strikeouts.
Let’s back the Dodgers offense to make life a little difficult for Arizona’s starter in Game 2 of the series.
Best Diamondbacks-Dodgers MLB Bets: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 Outs / Under 5.5 Strikeouts (DraftKings)
