Tonight’s late slate features the San Francisco Giants taking on the miserable Oakland Athletics. The Giants are just four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead, although they’re currently tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the runner-up spot, and are in the hunt for a Wild Card berth. The Athletics are, well, 31.5 games behind the AL West leaders. Let’s dig into today’s Athletics-Giants odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Athletics-Giants Betting Pick & Prediction: San Francisco Keeps Rolling
Athletics-Giants Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Athletics: +200 | Giants: -250
Athletics +1.5: +105 | Giants -1.5: -130
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
I’ll give the San Francisco Giants an edge on the mound even though we’re unsure who they intend to start. The Athletics are expected to start LHP Hogan Harris tonight, whose 6.11 ERA and 4.40 xERA are par for the course this year in Oakland. The Giants are currently expected to start LHP Alex Wood, whose 4.99 ERA and 5.41 xERA are the worst in the starting rotation, but some websites and sportsbooks are unsure about whether he’ll get the nod. Still, San Francisco’s bullpen is far more capable than Oakland’s.
Unsurprisingly, San Francisco has an edge on offense. The Giants rank a steady 16th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .321. That number slots in slightly above their .312 wOBA, which suggests they have gotten a bit unlucky. The Athletics rank 30th in xwOBA at .292, which is just a squeeze better than their .290 wOBA, also a league-worst. The A’s have treated their fans to a .642 OPS at home, which slots in below their .671 OPS on the road, but the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum may have something to do with that. They’ll benefit from playing on the road tonight.
The total for tonight’s Athletics-Giants game slots in at a surprisingly high 8.5. Oracle Park ranks only 21st in park factors, so it’s generally better for pitchers than batters, and the first game of this series produced only three runs. The Giants are 27-20-2 (57.4%) to the under when playing at home this season and are 19-12 (61.3%) to the under with a total of 8.5. However, the Athletics are 26-18-5 (59.1%) to the over when playing on the road, largely because of their ineffective pitching. Harris’ last road start produced nine runs, all of which were scored by the Detroit Tigers.
Part of why the total might be this high could be the weather: the reports suggest 12.8 mph wind will be blowing out through left field, which will benefit RHBs. Those players have already found plenty of success against Harris — teams often platoon against him, and he has surrendered 41 hits, 18 extra-base hits and five home runs. Let’s trust San Francisco’s leading RHB by xwOBA, J.D. Davis, to get a hit — and the Giants to pull through for the win. We can buy that same-game parlay at odds of only +105 (48.8%) via BetMGM.
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Best Athletics-Giants MLB Pick: J.D. Davis to Record a Hit/Giants Moneyline +105 at BetMGM
