If you’ve ever found yourself wondering, “Why do my bets keep losing?” you’re not alone. Sports betting can be a thrilling experience, but it can also be frustrating when your bets don’t pay off. There are a few common reasons why many bettors find themselves on the losing side more often than they’d like. In this article, we’ll explore some key factors that might be contributing to your losses and offer some sports betting strategy tips on how to start winning your sports bets.
Why Do My Bets Keep Losing? How to Start Winning Sports Bets
Reason #1: You’re Betting on Too Many Parlays | Why Do My Bets Keep Losing?
One of the most common mistakes among bettors is placing too many parlays. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a higher payout.
While the potential rewards can be tempting, the risk is significantly higher. In order for a parlay to pay out, every one of your individual bets has to win. If just one bet loses, the entire parlay fails.
The odds of winning decrease dramatically as you add more bets to the parlay. This makes parlays a high-risk, high-reward strategy that often leads to losses rather than gains.
You can check out our guide to parlay betting, but if you’re really hoping to turn things around, consider placing more straight bets.
Reason #2: You’re Not Placing +EV Bets
Another key reason many bettors lose is that they aren’t placing bets with positive expected value, or +EV. Understanding +EV is crucial to becoming a profitable bettor.
Essentially, a bet with +EV is one that you expect to be profitable over the long term. To calculate +EV, you need to estimate the probability of an outcome occurring and compare it to the implied probability of the odds.
There are two main approaches to calculating these probabilities:
A projections-based sports betting strategy involves using statistics, trends, and other data to estimate the likelihood of a certain outcome. For example, you might analyze a team’s performance, injuries, and matchups to predict the chance of them winning a game
A market-based strategy involves looking at odds from across the betting market to find a consensus, then identifying and betting on lines that offer better value than the market consensus.
Tools like Portfolio EV can help you find +EV bets by analyzing market odds and identifying where the value lies. By focusing on +EV bets, you increase your chances of making a profit in the long run.
If you have any doubts about our tools, check out our results — we posted a 7.6% ROI on all NBA bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher in 2023-24.
Reason #3: You’re Chasing Losses
Chasing losses is a common pitfall in sports betting. This happens when bettors, after losing a bet, place more bets (often larger ones) in an attempt to recover their losses quickly.
This can lead to a vicious cycle where you’re placing bets based on emotions rather than sound strategy. Betting with a clear head and a predetermined strategy is crucial.
Set a budget, stick to it, and don’t let a losing streak push you into making hasty decisions. Use a smart bankroll management strategy.
Reason #4: You’re Not Doing Your Homework
Betting without proper research is like playing poker blindfolded. A lack of understanding about the teams, players, or events you’re betting on can lead to poor decisions.
Successful sports bettors spend time analyzing data, studying trends, and keeping up with the latest news. By staying informed, you can make more educated bets and increase your chances of winning.
Reason #5: You’re Putting Too Much Faith in Your Favorite Team
Many bettors fall into the trap of betting on their favorite teams, regardless of the odds or circumstances. While it’s natural to want to your team, this emotional bias can cloud your judgment.
It’s important to remain objective and bet based on analysis rather than loyalty. Betting with your head, not your heart, is a principle that successful bettors live by.
