No House Advantage is one of the fastest growing Pick Em’ and Daily Fantasy Sports platforms in the industry. The original goal for contest based sites like No House Advantage was to provide an outlet for sports fans in states where legalized sports betting was not available. That goal was realized, and they’ve had so much success that bettors are still flocking to these sites, even where sports betting is legalized. They offer fun and unique ways to play, as well as new challenges for those seeking out every edge. Nonetheless, let’s show you how to use No House Advantage.
How to Use No House Advantage
No House Advantage s that think they have an advantage on Pick Ems’ can play “Vs. the House” for large multipliers. But unlike much of the sports betting industry, the House doesn’t always have the edge if you understand how to take advantage of the numbers.
The highest ROI spots on No House Advantage are also some of the riskiest. You can be a winner in the long-run if you identify the picks that have a good enough shot to hit, but you’ll have to stick around for the long-run and survive the variance that comes with trying to hit 2-4 leg multipliers.
OddsShopper’s data scientists went through the payouts for the Vs. the House contests to develop the optimal betting strategy. Once you understand the theory behind positive expected value plays on No House Advantage, you can make your life easier with our No House Advantage Parlay Builder. The tool does all the hard work for you by loading in the top plays available on the NHA board and calculating your multiplier’s expected win rate, long-term ROI and payout.
The good news is that No House Advantage has one of the lowest overall Vig’s compared to the other Pick Em sites. That’s great, but it varies from bet to bet, so let’s take a look at how the numbers bear out.
No House Advantage Strategy
No House Advantage Multipliers
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Pick Em’ sites like No House Advantage offer “fixed odds” in their contests. When you choose two or more bets on the Vs. the House format there is a standard multiplier for how much you will win and how much of the bet the site will hold.
If you think that the legs of your play beat the necessary number, you’re good. That being said, the breakeven point is high. Be aware of that in advance and make sure you’re finding the highest win probabilities possible by using tools like OddsShopper’s betting model.
| Play Type | # of Picks | Payout | Probability of Cashing | Average Implied Odds To Break Even for Each Leg | American Odds Needed to Break Even for Each Leg | American Odds Needed to Break Even for Each Leg (Standard Vig of 4.76% Included) | |||
| Multiplier | 2 | 3.2x | 33.33% | 57.74% | -137 | -154 | |||
| 3 | 5.5x | 20% | 58.48% | -141 | -159 | ||||
| 4 | 11x | 9.909% | 54.91% | -122 | -136 | ||||
| 5 | 21x | 4.76% | 54.39% | -120 | -133 |
The bottom line is that you need to beat the breakeven win percentage for every multiplier size to have a positive expected value. For a two-leg multiplier that means that the average win probability of your bets should be at 58% and above. Three-leg multipliers require around a 58.5% average win probability, 4-legs are at 55% and 5-legs are at 54.5%.
Those win percentages create a bit of a dilemma. It’s far easier to find four bets on No House Advantage that when combined have an average win percentage north of 54.5%. That makes it easiest to put together a +EV multiplier for the 5-leg play. Likewise, that gives you the best chance of a huge payout, 21x your money to be exact.
However, that also introduces a lot of risk. Even though that is the highest ROI play in theory, you’re only going to win the 5-leg multiplier around 5% of the time. It may be hard to find two bets that have a 58% average win probability, but when there are two available on the board, you should consider using them in 2-leg multipliers in addition to, or instead of the larger plays. That’s because you will win at a much higher rate, and although your ROI on those bets will be smaller it will allow you to stick around longer by protecting your bankroll while you wait for some bigger scores.
That’s a question of risk tolerance and not value, but you’ll have understand it if you want to win on No House Advantage over the long haul.
Tricks of the Trade
Your best bet for beating Vs. the House contests at NHA is by using a tool like the aforementioned Parlay Builder. That’s a one stop shop for the best bets on the platform. You’ll also want to take advantage of any promotional offers on the platform. Pick Em’ sites often give customers “free squares” or improved odds bets to grab their action.
And, if you are also looking to go outside the tools– and its understandably fun to do so– you have to ensure that you’re meeting the criteria for a positive expected value.
Many sports bettors look at the numbers at traditional sportsbooks to compare to No House Advantage to find mispricing. That seems easy if you assume the traditional book’s price is efficient and find an implied win probability higher than 58% (-141 juice) you’re good, right? Well, you have to that those books are holding a percentage as well. If they are par with the industry, you’ll actually have to compare them to get to -159 Vig or better.
That’s something to consider if you’re going outside OddsShopper’s tools. However, it’s also unnecessary and you’ll be well positioned to make money using the projections and market-based models that OddsShopper has to offer. No House Advantage has one of the lowest overall holds across the many Pick Em’ based sites on the market, and now that you understand the details you’re in a great spot to make some money vs. the House!
