2024 is my second full year using Portfolio EV. From Day 1, the Portfolio EV tools have helped me find profitable NBA bets. With that said, my NBA ROI was 3.64% in 2023 and it’s sitting at 9.56% in 2024. Here are lessons I learned using Portfolio EV that helped me increase my ROI from betting on the NBA.
My NBA Betting ROI in 2023
My NBA Betting ROI for 2024 to Date
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How To Maximize NBA Betting ROI Using Portfolio EV
Wait For Updated NBA Injury News
NBA injuries dictate a lot in the NBA betting market. Lines move frequently as players get ruled out over the course of the day. Typically, the biggest dump of NBA injury updates happen when the 1:30 p.m. ET and the 5:30 ET injury report updates come out. You can find the team injury report updates from this link.
In the morning, I always review the NBA injury reports to figure out which players are questionable, which players are out and which players are returning from injury. If a player’s under is projecting well on Portfolio EV, but they have a key teammate listed as questionable, I will hold off on placing the bet until I have more information.
Here’s an example of how injuries can change a player’s expected production. For the season, Dejounte Murray is averaging 22.5 points in 36 minutes per game. Trae Young is a key teammate of Murray’s who missed a handful of games this season.
When playing without Young, Murray averages 24.4 points per 36 minutes. This is because Murray takes on a larger workload and takes more shots when Young isn’t on the court. With this in mind, I wouldn’t bet unders for Murray props in the morning of a day when Young is listed as questionable.
The bet might look good in the morning, but the situation could change if Young is ruled out. Therefore in this situation, I would wait for an injury update on Young before placing an under bet on Murray that projects well.
Give EV Age a Few Minutes to Settle
When you are on the Portfolio EV Market-Based EV Bets page, you will see a column that says EV Age. This column tells you how long the recommended bet has been up.
Often, lines can move quickly from the initially posted line, which is why I try to avoid bets with an EV Age of just one or two minutes.
In the past, I would jump on a fresh line only to have it projected as a -EV bet a few minutes later — or have the line move against me only for a better line to become available.
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