BetMGM portfolio using Portfolio EV.
How to Create a Profitable BetMGM Portfolio With Portfolio EV
To kick off, head to the BetMGM (or any sportsbook you prefer) are the most likely to return profits on your investment. For this guide, we’ll focus on analyzing all sports to lay a broad foundation before refining the approach. While having multiple sportsbooks is ideal for maximizing your betting opportunities, focusing on BetMGM allows us to highlight specific strategies and markets if you are, in fact, a one-sportsbook bettor.
Keep Your Parameters Broad
Start by keeping your parameters as inclusive as possible. This approach ensures no potentially profitable opportunities are excluded early on. Here’s how to set up your initial filters:
- Bet Categories/Types: Include every available option.
- Time Until Event Starts: No restrictions; allow all timeframes.
- Odds Range: Accept all odds ranges to maximize coverage.
- OS Rating: Begin at 0 to capture all bets without filters.
- Expected EV and Win Range: Leave these fully open.
Casting a wide net at the start provides a comprehensive overview, helping you identify lucrative markets without prematurely eliminating spots that could be super profitable long-term.
Preview Results
Once the parameters are set, enter your average bet size to generate a preview of historical results for the current season. This preview includes critical metrics such as:
- Wins/Losses: The total number of bets that would have won or lost.
- Average Expected Win Rate: The predicted success rate of your wagers.
- ROI: The potential return on your investment.
As an illustration, we went with the Portfolio EV recommended bet size for all qualifying BetMGM bets over the current sports seasons, which yield the following results:
A 7.4% return on over 13,000 bets is pretty strong, especially when we compound that over time and integrate it into a disciplined, long-term betting strategy. By consistently placing every BetMGM wager with at least a 0 OS Rating, you already are steadily growing your bankrolls steadily.
Optimize Your Portfolio
However, we can refine our portfolio even further by focusing on high-performing markets to boost ROI.
Target Specific Markets
Analyze individual markets to spot underperformers and emphasize those with higher returns. For instance, most BetMGM markets that Portfolio EV has recommended this year have been +EV, but there are a couple higher-volume plays that are returning negatively: College football receiving yards and NFL rushing yards:
Now, we do not want to remove those sports entirely because NFL and college football both have very profitable markets this year. Instead, we will remove those specific bet types from our portfolio so Portfolio EV will not recommend those to use going forward. That pushed our overall ROI to 7.7% — which is a small increase from the original 7.4%, but it does improve our portfolio while maintaining high volume. We now profit over $80,500 on our portfolio if we follow the recommended bet sizes for the current season.
Refine OS Rating and EV Range
Fine-tuning your OS rating and EV range can further optimize your portfolio. For BetMGM, raising the minimum OS rating to 2 elevates the ROI to 10.2%, but it also reduces the total season profit significantly. For instance, at the recommended bet sizes, profits drop to $64,710 compared to over $80,500 with a more inclusive OS rating of 0.
The key is to experiment with various settings to strike a balance between ROI and sample size, ensuring your strategy aligns with your long-term goals.
Save and Manage Your Portfolio
After refining your portfolio, save it with a descriptive label (e.g., “BetMGM High ROI Portfolio”). Use the OddsShopper app to +EV bets, ensuring you’re alerted to new opportunities tailored to your strategy without needing to refresh the site constantly.
Saved portfolios remain accessible anytime, allowing you to revisit and tweak them throughout the season as necessary.
Monitor and Update Regularly
Sportsbooks frequently update their pricing and lines, which can influence your portfolio’s performance. Periodically review your results and make any needed adjustments to keep your portfolio optimized for profitability.
TheBetMGM or any other sportsbook, you can grow your bankroll consistently and efficiently — just like a savvy investor.
