Using DraftKings and optimize your betting for long-term success.
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How to Beat DraftKings Sportsbook With Portfolio EV
To get started, use diversify your bets, you can tailor this to focus specifically on DraftKings if you are a one-book bettor.
Selecting the Right Bet Categories
When setting up your portfolio, it’s best to start with a broad selection of bet categories. This ensures you don’t prematurely eliminate profitable markets before fully analyzing them. Portfolio EV allows you to filter bets by various criteria, including time until the event, odds ranges, expected value (EV) and projected win rates.
The tool also relies upon an OS Rating (OddsShopper’s proprietary bet rating system). Keeping this slider at 0 initially gives you the widest range of potential bets. As you refine your strategy, you can adjust the OS Rating filter to prioritize the highest-quality bets.
Analyzing Portfolio Results
After setting up your filters, Portfolio EV generates results based on your bankroll and selected sportsbook. The tool presents historical performance data for each bet, including expected win rates and EV. For instance, if you input a $1,000 bankroll, you’ll see estimated profits based on past data.
At this stage, certain bet types may show lower profitability than other DraftKings bets. Here’s an example:
With broad parameters including all DraftKings markets, the portfolio’s ROI is solid at 4.4%, but some bets are -EV. This means it’s time to make adjustments and refine our portfolio to target the most profitable opportunities.
Refining Your DraftKings Portfolio
Once you’ve reviewed your initial results, the next step is eliminating underperforming bet types. For instance, NFL receiving yards, NFL ing touchdowns, MLB hits and WNBA assists are high-volume bets that returned negatively, so removing these markets from your portfolio can improve profitability.
After cutting out low-performing bets, the updated results give us a slight bump in EV up to 5.1%. That may seem like a marginal improvement, but in the long run those adjustments can lead to much higher expected returns.
Optimizing OS Rating and EV Filters
Fine-tuning the OS Rating and EV range can further optimize your portfolio. Leaving these settings broad at first provides a large dataset to analyze. However, adjusting the OS Rating to prioritize higher-quality bets (e.g., setting a minimum of 2) may improve ROI while reducing the number of available bets.
There’s a tradeoff to consider: Raising the OS Rating may increase your ROI percentage but lower your overall profit due to fewer betting opportunities. Finding the right balance is key to maximizing long-term gains.
Our DraftKings portfolio sees a significant ROI jump to 6.9%, but total profit drops by about $5,000. While a higher ROI might look appealing, reducing the number of bets can also limit overall earnings. Keeping the OS Rating at 0 would generate more profit over the same period, so it’s all about finding the right balance between efficiency and volume as you fine-tune your portfolio.
Saving and Managing Your DraftKings Portfolio
Once your portfolio is optimized, save it under a recognizable name (e.g., “+EV DraftKings Bets”). This allows you to track results over time and make ongoing adjustments as needed. Portfolio EV also provides real-time +EV bets appear, ensuring you don’t miss out on profitable opportunities.
You can further customize your portfolio by inputting your bankroll details, allowing the tool to recommend bet sizes that align with your financial strategy.
Keep Monitoring and Adjusting Your Portfolio
DraftKings Sportsbook frequently updates its betting markets, so regularly revisiting and adjusting your portfolio is crucial. Whether DraftKings changes its pricing models or certain bet types become more profitable, continual monitoring ensures you stay ahead of the game. By systematically refining your approach, you can consistently identify +EV bets and develop a long-term profitable strategy for beating DraftKings Sportsbook.
