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Women’s World Cup Best Bets: Japan-Costa Rica and Canada-Ireland Predictions

July 25, 2023 | 10:00 AM by Josh Ricker

Wednesday’s Women’s World Cup slate features four games across Groups B, C and E. For the sake of simplicity, the four favorites to look out for in the field are the United States, Japan, Spain and Canada. The first three countries all started their campaigns off strongly, with respective 3-0, 5-0 and 3-0 victories; meanwhile, Canada struggled and was held to a draw by Nigeria. Its contest versus Ireland now becomes all the more important to its qualification efforts. With that being said, let’s break down the best Women’s World Cup bets, with predictions for both Japan-Costa Rica and Canada-Ireland. Also, a full preview of USA-Netherlands can be found here.

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Women’s World Cup Odds: Japan-Costa Rica Odds

Japan Moneyline -2,000
Costa Rica Moneyline +3,500
Draw Moneyline +1,100
Over/Under 3.5 Total Goals Over: -115, Under: -120
Location Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, New Zealand
Time 1:00 a.m. ET
TV FOX/Universo

Japan-Costa Rica Prediction

Japan-Costa Rica is the kick-off for the day. This match is lopsided in favor of Japan, but the moneyline odds are not as juicy as some others at this tournament. Right now, its implied win probability sits at 99.5%. In turn, Japan still should win this game rather easily, which will probably force a showdown against Spain on the final day for first place of Group C.

Japan kicked off its Women’s World Cup campaign with a 5-0 win against Zambia, who is the lowest ranked team (No. 77) in this competition, according to FIFA. Japan controlled 60% of the possession, did not concede even a single shot and scored four of its goals in the second half. It was a dazzling display from one of the World Cup’s most successful teams.

On the other hand, Costa Rica was equally as unimpressive. It is still yet to win a World Cup match in its four tries and only mustered 19% possession against Spain, a feat not seen since before 2011. It was historically bad, and a 3-0 loss was probably too complimentary of its performance. Against a high-energy team like Japan, the scoreline could get even worse. The play here is to go against the trend of fewer goals at this World Cup and take the over on 3.5 total goals, which sits at +105. This play has hit in four of Japan’s last 11 matches, which is actually quite good considering the total and the level of talent it has faced.

Final Japan-Costa Rica Prediction: Over 3.5 Total Goals (+105, DraftKings)

Women’s World Cup Odds: Canada-Ireland Odds

Canada Moneyline -170
Ireland Moneyline +550
Draw Moneyline +260
Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals Over: +135, Under: -190
Location Perth Rectangular Stadium, Perth, Australia
Time 8:00 a.m. ET
TV FOX/Telemundo

Canada-Ireland Prediction

This group is absolutely loaded; even after the first match, it is extremely hard to predict how this will play out. Respectively, Canada, Australia, Ireland and Nigeria are the seventh-, 10th-, 22nd- and 40th-best teams in the world, according to FIFA. Since Canada slipped up against Nigeria, it now has its backs against the wall, facing two of the most difficult teams in the entire field.

Despite that, Canada is the still the favorite and has an implied win probability of 62.9%. There seems to be general concern around this Canadian team given it has only won one match from its last six. Four of those matches were losses to , Japan, the United States and Brazil, and it was shut out in three. Even against Nigeria, it looked like a shadow of the team it once was. Bev Priestman’s team failed to score despite an expected goals of 1.47, and Christine Sinclair missed a penalty kick. It seems as though this Canada team is on the back half of its peak.

Moreover, its opponents lost ever so narrowly to Australia on the opening day. A penalty from Stephanie Catley was all that was needed to slide by the Irish in a match it was not expected to win. That has more or less been the story of Ireland in the buildup to this World Cup. It has won five of its last 10 matches, having won the games expected but nothing more. With that in mind, Ireland can at least cover the +0.5 spread, which offers odds of +130; this obviously covers in case of a draw. Also, fading both teams to score currently sits at -170. If that price moves down to the -130/-140 area, that is a surefire play.

Final Canada-Ireland Prediction: Ireland +0.5 (+130, DraftKings)

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