The second Women’s World Cup quarterfinal kicks off on Friday morning, with 11th-ranked Japan taking on third-ranked Sweden. Japan has really turned heads at this tournament, standing as the only team left to have won all of its games within regular time. In some ways, this four-match run has served as a “ what we can do” moment for the country that exited the 2019 tournament in the group stage. Nonetheless, it does face a huge challenge in Sweden, who is also unbeaten, having just taken down the two-time defending champions on penalty kicks. It was not the most magical game from Sweden, but it will surely be riding a wave of confidence coming into Friday’s affair. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets and Japan-Sweden prediction and odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Japan-Sweden Odds
| Japan Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +125/-165 |
| Sweden Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +225/+130 |
| Draw Moneyline | +210 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +135, Under: -170 |
| Location | Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand |
| Time | 3:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Japan-Sweden Odds
All in all, Japan is the favorite here, with +125 odds to win in regular time and -165 odds to advance. In 11 total matches against each other, dating back to 1991, Japan is 5-2-4 against Sweden. Their last meeting at the World Cup came in 2011, which Japan won 3-1 on its path to eventually becoming champions.
Regardless, its current odds are based on its scintillating form over the past couple of weeks. Japan has outscored opponents 14-1 over four matches and has built up a meager expected goals allowed of 1.7 despite holding only 50% possession on average. This is a major testament to the way it defends and limits opponent chance creation. On top of that, its 49 interceptions, which are the fourth most in the field, show its energy and eagerness to get on the counter. It also has the highest scorer at the Women’s World Cup in Hinata Miyazawa, who is scoring 1.76 goals per 90 minutes she is on the field.
On the other hand, Sweden is another mainstay at the Women’s World Cup. One could rave about Japan for hours, but Sweden did just knock out the United States, so it deserves massive credit too. With three clean sheets in a row, its defense is top-notch, including goalkeeper Zecira Musovic. To this point, she has 3.0 post-shot expected goals and has only conceded one. In just a little over three matches, this is the perfect display of how talented she is.
Japan-Sweden Prediction: The Over/Under
The odds for this match are swaying towards the under in a big way because these are two elite defenses. Together, they were expected to concede 5.2 goals over eight games but conceded two instead, a difference of 3.2 goals. While one would have to bet under 1.5 goals to see any value, fading both teams to score is always an option, and that has hit in 75% of their eight combined matches and is an equally significant trend across the field. That play offers -120 odds, which is enough for a sprinkle. For some extra risk, a clean sheet in favor of Japan is running at +155.
Japan-Sweden Prediction
Whether the USA or Sweden won that Round of 16 matchup, the prediction was either team having its Women’s World Cup journey ending at the hands of Japan. Japan has just been so impressive Down Under, and its 4-0 win against Spain said everything. This is a team that is hungry to reclaim top spot on the world stage, and the ruthlessness it plays with is unmatched.
Sweden is a great team too, but it did not look great against the United States, which was its hardest test by quite some distance. It goes without saying — the States had not looked up to par over the course of its entire stay either, so that win has to have context behind it. If Sweden concedes as many chances as it did in that match, it will be on the losing end of a big scoreline.
Where Sweden does have the advantage is its physicality. Japan will have to be wary on set pieces, and offensively it needs to try to stretch and outpace the Swedish back line. With that being said, the official play betting Japan to win in regular time, on top of the fading both teams to score.
Final Japan-Sweden Prediction: Japan Moneyline (+125, DraftKings)
No on Both Teams to Score (-120, DraftKings)
