An action-packed Matchday 18 awaits us in the MLS. Quite a few road teams stand out on the betting markets this week with somewhat surprisingly long odds. Let’s dive into the MLS betting odds to find the best picks and bets for today’s slate.
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Best MLS Bets, Picks & Predictions for Matchday 18: Road Teams Have Value
Charlotte FC-Seattle Sounders Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle: +180 | Draw: +225 | Charlotte: +150
The Seattle Sounders have been in poor form lately due to injuries, but they should be at full strength — or at least close to it — on Saturday evening. Star Jordan Morris, who leads the team in expected goals (xG), is back in the lineup. Seattle lost to San Jose and tied with Portland in the last two games.
The Sounders will play Charlotte FC tonight. Charlotte ranks a respectable ninth in the Eastern Conference at 6-3-8. However, Charlotte has gone only 3-2-3 at home with a goal differential of -2. In contrast, Seattle ranks second in the Western Conference at 8-3-6. The Sounders have gone 3-1-3 on the road this year with a goal differential of -1.
The market consensus gives Seattle between a 34% and 36% chance to win this game. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Seattle only a 29% chance. However, my model has Seattle winning this game 46% of the time, which is better than the +180 (35.7%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Morris’ return is huge for the Sounders and should help them get back on track.
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Today’s MLS Bet: Seattle Sounders +180 at DraftKings
Chicago Fire-Columbus Crew Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago: +145 | Draw: +245 | Columbus: +175
The Chicago Fire will host the Columbus Crew tonight, and the model wants a bit of exposure to the road team. It likes Columbus half as much as it likes Seattle, so if you’re planning to tail this column, wager your units accordingly. Columbus has struggled on the road this year but benefits from the matchup against a mediocre home team.
Columbus is a much better team than Chicago. The Crew enter this match at 7-3-6, good for sixth place in the Eastern Conference. The Fire sit at a putrid 3-8-5 and rank 14th. Chicago has gone 2-6-0 at home with a goal differential of +2, which is somewhat impressive, but they have vastly outperformed their last-ranked expected goals xG at home. They have scored 13 goals at home, almost double their 7.68 xG.
Columbus isn’t the best road team and is just 1-1-5 in away games this year, but their offensive potential has remained a constant. The Crew have scored only eight goals on the road, fewer than the 12.48 xG, which suggests they have gotten unlucky. If regression works its magic, the Crew should win this Matchday 18 game 42% of the time, better than the +175 (36.4%) at DraftKings.
Today’s MLS Bet: Columbus Crew +175 at DraftKings
