The big dance is upon us. Non-stop college basketball action will run all weekend long, and college basketball bettors eager to have more action than just their brackets have plenty of options on the board. However, the Vermont-Marquette odds point to this bet as a +ROI wager at OddsShopper’s tools.
Vermont-Marquette Odds & Best Bet | March Madness
Marquette (-10.5) vs. Vermont
After a thrilling regular season and a Big East tournament win over Xavier, the Marquette Golden Eagles enter this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament as a second seed. They’ll face the Vermont Catamounts, who have won their last 15 games, in the tournament’s opening round. While the books are correct to favor the Golden Eagles, giving them a 10.5-point advantage is excessive.
Vermont plays the exact kind of basketball that they need to play for them to cover — or win — as an overmatched underdog. The Catamounts rank 309th in adjusted tempo on the year, per BartTorvik, which means they could slow this game down. Although Marquette ranks 117th in tempo on the year, they have slowed to a slightly more deliberate 189th since the start of February. Slow play increases the significance of variance, which can help an underdog like Vermont greatly.
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It helps that the Catamounts play some exceptionally efficient offense. Vermont ranks 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of February, slightly ahead of 35th-ranked Marquette. The Catamounts also rank second in effective field goal percentage (60.7%) since that date. Vermont ranks 12th-best in turnover rate (12.9%) this year, also slightly ahead of 26th-ranked Marquette.
Vermont is both efficient and deliberate enough to keep this game within a single-digit margin. I bought Vermont at +11.5 when the markets opened, but the line has since moved to +10.5 at most public books. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has already cut this number down to +9.5 with the juice nearly at an even price. Bettors can still buy the +10.5 at -110 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to at FanDuel can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
March Madness Vermont-Marquette Prediction & Bet: Vermont +10.5 (-110 for 0.52 Unit) at FanDuel
