The NCAA men’s college basketball tournament will get underway tomorrow, March 16. As you put the finishing touches on your bracket, you should think about backing some of the underdogs, either to score big first-round upsets or make it all the way to the Sweet 16. So who will become this year’s March Madness Cinderella story? Our expert will provide three sharp longshot bets to make the Sweet 16, including the Vermont Catamounts. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets.
March Madness Cinderella Predictions: Sweet 16 Longshot Bets
Furman Paladins
If you want to get action on this bet for this year’s big dance, you’ll have to do so quickly — No. 13 Furman tips off against No. 4 Virginia early on Thursday. The winner of this game will line up against either No. 5 San Diego State or No. 12 College of Charleston. That means Furman has a clear path to the Sweet 16 without the threat of a far more dominant Blue Blood.
While Furman is rightfully listed as a lengthy underdog, slow-paced favorites are more vulnerable to upsets than fast-paced ones. That’s because fewer possessions increase the significance of variance. While this wouldn’t matter in a multi-game playoff series like those played in the NBA, it matters a ton in March. The notoriously slow Cavaliers have lost major upsets to No. 13 Ohio in 2021 and to No. 16 UMBC in 2018.
Furman’s next matchup wouldn’t be a layup, but they’d certainly open as a smaller underdog for that game than the 6-point underdog they are for Thursday’s game with Virginia. They could even open as a pick’em against Charleston. Because of Furman’s first-round matchup, the odds of the school getting hot and making the Sweet 16 are better than the implied odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook (11.2%). Readers yet to at FanDuel can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
March Madness Sweet 16 Bet: Furman +790 at FanDuel
Vermont Catamounts
Can No. 15 Vermont make the Sweet 16? A 15 seed has gotten that far in the last two seasons, with No. 15 Saint Peter’s getting to the Elite Eight last year and No. 15 Oral Robers getting to the Sweet 16 the year before. Saint Peter’s came into the tournament on a seven-game winning streak, while Oral Roberts entered on a five-game winning streak. Vermont enters the dance having won its last 15 games.
The Vermont Catamounts have a tough opening-round matchup with No. 2 Marquette. However, Marquette is probably overseeded at No. 2. They rank 12th at KenPom and 13th at BartTorvik. Few teams that were unranked in preseason polling tend to do much in March. Further, Vermont runs a slow-paced offense and ranks 308th in adjusted tempo at BartTorvik. Marquette slots in at a reasonable 116th, but if Vermont can slow this game down, the Golden Eagles might be in trouble.
Vermont would face the winner of Michigan State and USC in the next round. Both are respectable opponents, but Michigan State just got knocked off by an Ohio State team in the Big Ten tournament that finished the year with a losing record. The Buckeyes did exactly what the Catamounts would have to do to win — get an early lead and slow the game down. Vermont has a better shot of making the Sweet 16 than the implied odds available at FanDuel (5.2%) would have you believe, so we’re backing them as well.
March Madness Sweet 16 Bet: Vermont +1800 at FanDuel
College of Charleston Cougars
I’m trusting the math, not my own analysis, for this play. I prefer Furman to come out of this part of the South Region at +790, but FiveThirtyEight‘s March Madness model has this bet as a +EV play — it gives the College of Charleston Cougars a 15% chance to make the Sweet 16, better than the implied odds (14.9%) available at FanDuel. That’s a marginal edge, but it’s an edge nonetheless.
The logic here is similar to the logic with the Furman bet. No utterly dominant team resides in this part of the South Region, which creates a gap that a Cinderella team can exploit during March Madness. If Charleston can pull off the upset against a hot San Diego State team, it’d get the next swing at the slow-paced, upset-prone Virginia Cavaliers.
It certainly helps that the San Diego State Aztecs play at a snail’s pace themselves. The Aztecs rank 237th in pace this season. They have fallen to 331st in pace since February. Although the Aztecs play some exceptionally efficient basketball, Colorado State and Utah State hung around against them in conference tournament play, and Boise State scored a late-season upset win in February. Five of San Diego State’s last 10 wins came by just one possession.
March Madness Sweet 16 Bet: Charleston Cougars +570 at FanDuel
