Here we go in Boston with the Celtics, a commanding 14.5-point home favorite, looking to close out the Cavaliers. The Thunder stormed back from down 14 to even their series with the Mavericks, and now a banged-up Luka Doncic and inconsistent Kyrie Irving look to bounce back on the road in Oklahoma City. Now we look to make some Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions for Wednesday, May 15
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Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
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Daniel Gafford H/L Than 9.5 Points
We get the squeeze back with another Daniel Gafford points prop. It comes as little surprise, as we look to go lower than his posted 9.5 number. We got ahead of the books last game by going lower than 10.5 points despite most sports books having their number at 9.5. That doesn’t scare us off tonight, as Dallas isn’t going to maximize any matchup Gafford has with the Thunder.
In fact, he’s regressed back to the standard level of 8 to 10 points, finding early spots then giving way to the stars. The Mavericks are certainly playing at a slower pace, giving way to a halfcourt game to benefit the hobbled Doncic. With possessions already limited in this game and an expected bounce back from Irving, there are going to be fewer chances for Gafford to score — especially as the game progresses.
The Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool identifies a 3.6% edge against the market. By matching the implied odds of -122 at Underdog, we beat the true odds of -132 for a +EV play.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Daniel Gafford LOWER Than 9.5 Points
Jayson Tatum H/L Than 10.5 Rebounds
This is a large number for the Celtics leader to clear on the glass. Yes, they remain without big man Kristaps Porzingis and continue to run the Cavaliers with Boston’s version of “Al Horford Small Ball,” but that fails to solidify a case for 11+ boards for Jayson Tatum.
The Cavs have been burned without Jarrett Allen down low, limiting their ability to keep Tatum, and others, off the glass. Evan Mobley can’t do it, nor can Cleveland’s smaller lineups. Expect a different approach to at least try to funnel rebounds elsewhere, depending on if the Cavs even have the bodies.
Then there’s the blowout factor, especially with a close-out game having a 14.5-point spread. Tatum has already played a ton of minutes in this series, with three games decided by double digits — including Boston’s lone loss. If Boston is up big, there’s a smart reason behind sitting starters to rest for the Eastern Conference Finals. It is rare to factor that in, but the circumstances surrounding tonight’s game warrant it.
OddsShopper’s Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool gives us a 1.2% EV edge with our -122 implied odds at Underdog. By going lower than 10.5 rebounds, we beat the -125 true odds.
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