Sleeper NBA Picks & Predictions: Khris Middleton is the Man (December 13)

The NBA slate has nine games, highlighted by the Pacers-Bucks in Milwaukee with the highest game total ever of 258.5. Let’s dive into the best Sleeper Fantasy NBA picks, starting with Khris Middleton.

The NBA can be confusing to navigate with so many players questionable and or sitting out so let’s find some plus EV plays and win some money! Please take advantage of our Sleeper Fantasy promo: Get your first deposit matched on Sleeper up to $100!

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Sleeper NBA Picks & Predictions

Khris Middleton H/L 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

The Bucks have a rematch of last week’s In-Season Tournament Semifinal, where they lost 119-128 to the Pacers. Khris Middleton broke 30 minutes for the first time this season, tallying 31 points + assists + rebounds (PRA). His minutes limit has been lifted, as seen in Monday’s victory over the Bulls, where he played 33 minutes. This is an incredible matchup for Middleton against the Pacers, who rank third in defensive rating.

Before his injury-plagued 2023 season, Middleton averaged 30-plus PRA per game for three straight seasons. Now that he seems healthy enough to play 30-plus minutes per game, he should have no problem reaching that mark on this Bucks team that ranks fifth in pace. Tonight’s game against Indiana has the highest game total ever of 258.5. The Bucks are 6-point home favorites, and Middleton can easily reach 26 PRA in a pace-up game.

Best Sleeper Fantasy NBA Pick: Khris Middleton More Than 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Brook Lopez H/L 1.5 Turnovers

This is an interesting statistic that I don’t usually play, but it looks really favorable for us today. Brook Lopez is averaging just 0.9 turnovers per game this season and has had two or more turnovers in just four of 23 games. His 16.2% usage ranks sixth on the Bucks, behind all other starters and Bobby Portis. He doesn’t handle the ball much and is strictly a catch-and-shoot or quick post player.

Using OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool, we see that all other operators have the less juiced between -190 and -210, giving this a 64% expected win rate. In the two matchups with Indiana this season, he’s recorded zero and one turnover. Trust the tool and the numbers here and go with less than for Lopez.

Best Sleeper Fantasy NBA Pick: Brook Lopez Less Than 1.5 Turnovers

Jaren Jackson Jr. H/L 22.5 Points

Jaren Jackson Jr. has had some big games this season, with tons of opportunity due to the absence of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Steven Adams, but he is still averaging just 20.8 points per game and 20.6 on the road. Tonight he gets a brutal matchup against Houston, which has the second-best defensive rating in the NBA and allows the fewest points per game at just 105.6. This is a pace-down spot against the Rockets, who are the third-slowest team.

Jackson gets half of his points in the paint, leading the team at 10.6 points in the paint per game. Houston ranks third, allowing just 44.5 points in the paint per game. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for the Grizzlies, and if he sits, it could open up more opportunities for Jackson, but that puts this game out of reach for Memphis. Houston is already a 7-point home favorite, and with a low total of just 210 points, I’m going less than for Jackson.

Best Sleeper Fantasy NBA Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Less Than 22.5 points

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