The Western Conference’s play-in tournament field is set, and the books have already started taking action on Tuesday’s games. Let’s dig into the Western Conference play-in odds and matchups to see what stands out before getting into get to our Timberwolves-Lakers and Thunder-Pelicans predictions. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s betting model for picks closer to tipoff!
NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament Betting Odds
No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (-7)
Tuesday, April 11 at 10 p.m. ET
The Lakers opened as a 5-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves, but with the news that Jaden McDaniels suffered a fractured hand in Sunday’s comeback win over the New Orleans Pelicans, the Lakers have seen that advantage grow by two points. Their moneyline odds (-300) convert to a 75% implied win probability. However, FiveThirtyEight’s model lists the Lakers as only a 3.5-point favorite with a 64% chance of winning, thus earning a first-round matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Despite their bad start to the season, the Los Angeles Lakers look like a solid team. They rank sixth in net rating since the All-Star Break (+4.9) and 12th in clutch net rating for the full season (+2.8). Swapping out guards Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverley for more versatile role players at the trade deadline has worked wonders. The Timberwolves haven’t been bad themselves, but they rank only 17th in net rating since the pause (+0.2) and 15th in clutch net rating (+1.8).
The biggest stories for Minnesota involve, concerningly, punches. McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall on Sunday. Rudy Gobert threw a punch at his teammate, Kyle Anderson, on Sunday, leading the team to send him home early. Gobert ended the game with two points, three rebounds and a box-plus minus of -14. The Timberwolves went on to win by a five-point margin despite his absence. They are only 0.3 points more efficient with him on the floor than with him off it this season.
Bettors interested in backing the Lakers to win Tuesday’s game can take advantage of a special promotion at DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after placing a winning $5 moneyline wager!
Timberwolves-Lakers Prediction: Lakers Moneyline
No. 10 Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans (-5)
Wednesday, April 12 at 9:30 p.m. ET
The Dallas Mavericks fumbled a shot at the play-in tournament, and the gritty Oklahoma City Thunder capitalized on the opportunity by taking it for themselves. They opened as 5-point underdogs to the New Orleans Pelicans, who they will face on Wednesday night. New Orleans’ moneyline odds (-210) convert to an implied win probability of 67.7%. FiveThirtyEight’s model has the Pelicans as a 5.5-point favorite with a 71% chance of winning.
Even though they won’t get Zion Williamson back for the play-in, the New Orleans Pelicans play a feisty brand of basketball. They rank 13th in net rating since the All-Star Break (+2.9) and fifth in clutch net rating (+10). That outpaces the Thunder, who rank 18th since the pause (-0.2) and 22nd in the clutch (-6.1). The Pelicans went 3-1 against the Thunder this season, although each of their wins came by four points or fewer.
The Thunder have struggled to defend opposing backcourts. They have allowed the eighth-most points per game to point guards (25) and the ninth-most to shooting guards (24.2). Those struggles correspond to struggles from beyond the arc, as the Thunder allow the eighth-most 3-pointers per game (12.9). New Orleans’ C.J. McCollum went off for 26 points and four 3-pointers in his last game against Oklahoma City, and a similarly big showing could be in the cards for him on Wednesday night.
Although it would be fun to see the Thunder make a playoff run, bettors should back the Pelicans and their experienced stars to get the job done against the young team. Backing McCollum or Brandon Ingram on the player prop markets in a must-win game should prove profitable. Expect the Pelicans to cover as well — they have gone 23-17-1 against the spread at home.
Thunder-Pelicans Prediction: Pelicans -5 & McCollum 3’s Over
