The middle of the NBA work week hits hard with 11 games on the schedule. While it’s still early, some of these are marquee matchups. The Lakers look to hand the Cavs their first loss of the season, as will the Pacers with the visiting Celtics. Tobias Harris faces his former Sixers squad for the first time this year — although both Joel Embiid and Paul George remain sidelined. Here are the top three NBA player props today as provided by our Portfolio EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, October 30
Last season, we went unlock our picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
It’s one thing for me to write on about how fantastic these tools are, even a little better with the data that we provide. I’ll take it a step further and show you my actual results. Follow me on Twitter @shanderbets as I track my road to 100+ units in the NBA. You can see here that the results are already yielding strong profit. Day eight saw a 16-5 record with a +11.3u night of profit — the second day in a row with double-digit profit — and a YTD of 125-95-5 (+35.9u).
It’s not just the profit but how efficient my time is outside of betting. The Portfolio EV tool does the homework, travels across multiple legal books, and matches it against the sharpest on the planet. Every +EV bet comes from a market-based approach that has been proven over time to net profit. It’s working with me. Maybe that’s a subtle way of softening up the 1-2 record last night. It’s simply hard to ignore that anyone using this tool on a nightly basis in the NBA is making money.
To help you get started constructing your profitable portfolio of NBA player prop bets, tail these plays:
We’ve knocked down a few plays with longer odds over the past two days — including last night with Jokic from 3. Our top play stays in the same lane but we will pay a price for this one — which is still an insane bargain in its own right.
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 3-pointers is -165 on BetMGM. Right away, it’s a strong bet because it’s beating the true odds of -192, rather handedly. We get nearly 30 points of value by laying -165 at MGM, which is the first step towards profit.
The second is matching what the rest of the market is doing — it’s called “market based” for a reason. No other book is offering this prop at anything better than -194. None. Not FanDuel, not DraftKings, not Unibet. Just MGM is offering a price that’s worth a play.
Look at it this way; which sportsbook operator’s technology is more likely to be wrong? BetMGM or the seven other books posting worse lines in the graphic below. It’s an obvious answer as one book straying from the pack is nearly always more likely to be laying an outlier than not.
After coming up short in the first two games, Siakam did knock down two 3’s in each of his last two contests. The biggest change, in a small sample, was minutes played. A game going to overtimehelped push him to more minutes and shots, as did the 34 he played Monday against the Magic. The Celtics are no joke defending the perimeter and make it extra tough for guys like Siakam who don’t use it as their primary weapon.
We have two more plays that tail the same logic and approach as Siakam. There’s a 6.5% edge in betting Andrew Nembhard under 11.5 points, and a 6.1% edge in going under Clint Capela 21.5 points + rebounds + assists. Get the best number and you profit over time.
Follow me on X @shanderbets as we continue on our journey to 100-plus units betting the NBA off Portfolio EV.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
