I’m in shambles. We had a chance to win three straight NBA parlays, and DeMar DeRozan ripped our hearts out and stomped on them. An absolutely DREADFUL performance from Mr. Mid-Range sold our NBA parlay picks Monday. Tough scenes. 😢
Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Tuesday, Jan. 16, including an NBA player prop picks for Devin Booker and James Harden. Need more action? Check out our NBA betting promos — including the new MEGA PROMO from BetMGM!
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +600 Bet for Tuesday
Devin Booker Under 8.5 Assists & Suns-Kings Total Over 233.5 (NBA Player Prop)
We have a small slate on Tuesday’s NBA schedule, so we’re going to get a tad creative with our NBA parlay picks today.
We’re going to be making two same-game parlays — one from Kings-Suns and one from Clippers-Thunder. And for the first two legs of our Kings-Suns same-game parlay, we’re going to roll with some alternate lines here: Devin Booker under 8.5 assists and Suns-Kings total over 233.5 points.
For Booker, he’s been steady in that seven-assist range with the Suns Big 3 on the court now that Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are fully healthy. In his last 10 games, Booker has only gone over the 8.5-assist mark ONCE.
Ironically, in his two games against the Kings this season, he finished with seven assists both times.
The second part of this parlay is Kings-Suns over 233.5 points. Now, I was looking at some defensive metrics earlier and saw the Suns had crept up a little bit in some categories.
However, looking at their recent game totals, they’ve gone over this 233.5 mark in five of their last six games. And the Kings? They’ve gone over this number in five of their last seven.
Both of these teams love to score the basketball, and with Phoenix operating at 100% with its Big 3, we should see another high-scoring affair.
The books have this total projected 243.5. Let’s get there.
De’Aaron Fox Over Assists (NBA Player Prop)
The assist numbers for De’Aaron Fox haven’t been eye-popping the past handful of games.
However, he still has a massive 31.8% usage rate on the season, so he’s still having the ball in his hands A TON and still being relied upon to make plays.
Of course, after saying all that, he’s averaging 5.8 assists on the season, but he’s only gone over five assists once in his last six games.
But my friends, I put on my Goonies hat and started digging for treasure and found that, over the last 10 games, he’s averaging 10.8 potential assists per game. But in that same timeframe, he’s only had highs of eight assists (twice) and seven (once).
He’s running into a bit of bad luck and should be able to turn that around. And we’re not even needing him to clear a number like 5.5 or more.
We’re taking the Fox alt line assists of over 3.5 tonight, which he has gone over in 12 of his last 13 games (but most of them were right at four) .
Let’s be on the good side of the assist variance tonight, please.
James Harden Over 6.5 Assists & Under 6.5 Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
Since we have that nice profit boost over at DraftKings, let’s fire up a couple of alternate lines on the bearded wonder himself, James Harden.
Harden has been good to us this season, and we’ve cashed many a ticket on his props so far. Let’s keep that trend going with the over 6.5 assist alt line and the under 6.5 rebounds alt line.
One of the best EV bets in the OddsShopper Prop Tool today was Harden for under 5.5 rebounds, so let’s give ourselves a bit more cushion since we have that boost. He’s only cleared this number ONCE in his last 11 games, and he JUST beat it by the hook. I feel pretty good with this one.
Another one I feel good about is this 6.5 assist total. Harden has been distributing it like crazy lately, and it really helps to be ing to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
In fact, in that same 11-game span we talked about earlier, Harden has only failed to clear the 6.5-assist mark ONCE, and, you guessed it, it was by the hook.
If we’re going to get hooked, so be it. But we’re taking the over on 6.5 assists and under on 6.5 rebounds and moving on our merry way to the final leg of the NBA parlay today.
Clippers Moneyline vs. Thunder (NBA Betting Pick)
The Oklahoma City Thunder looked a bit sluggish last night against the Lakers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a true game-time decision, I guess, and was dealing with some type of illness?
The Thunder stay in Los Angeles but will be playing on the tail end of a back-to-back against the Clippers — you know, the team that has won eight of its last 10 games.
Look, the Thunder have been GREAT this season, but this Clippers team seems to be running at a different level right now. This … this is a true Big 3 with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Harden. And the Clippers are getting the happy version of Harden, which is the best version.
I don’t want to screw around with points, especially since we’re probably going to get some type of injury/load management/illness news on the Oklahoma City side of things, so I’m going to grab the moneyline before things break.
After all, the Thunder could legitimately sit Gilgeous-Alexander tonight if he’s dealing with that illness. And if they do, the spread and moneyline will shift by about 10 billion points. That’s something we DO NOT want to be fighting with.
On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander could’ve been taking it easy last night and saving himself for the revenge spot here against the Clippers. Which, if that’s the case, I’ll be in shambles.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Devin Booker Under 8.5 Assists
Leg 2: De’Aaron Fox Over 3.5 Assists
Leg 3: Suns-Kings Total Over 233.5
Leg 4: James Harden Under 6.5 Rebounds & Over 6.5 Assists
Leg 5: Clippers Moneyline
= +600 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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