SMH. The NBA is waging a war against our picks lately. They will absolutely not let us cash in on all of our NBA parlay picks. It’s getting a bit out of hand. I thought we were going to have it last night. Giannis ends 1 rebound short, and Devin Booker just totally sells us after Kevin Durant puts up a ridiculous triple-double out of nowhere. It’s getting wacky in these NBA betting streets. Let’s make some sense of it today.
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +485 Parlay Thursday
Luka Doncic Under 38.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
This is a scary endeavor. I can’t even lie.
Betting the under on ANYTHING Luka Doncic right now just feels like death. However, we’ve been given the blade NUMEROUS times of late, so, what’s a little more pain going to do to us if we miss on an under.
This points prop is just getting ridiculous. I mean, 38.5 points as the main line? This … this just CAN’T be real life.
Luka did just play 37 minutes night against the Cavs. And, yes, he did score 39 points. I think we have to take a spot here to short this Luka line because it’s just so overly inflated.
The OddsShopper Prop Tool has Luka UNDER 37.5 points one of the best +EV bets on the entire board, and has it listed with an expected win rate of 56%. And, that’s AFTER the line moved on us, because we got it in early with 38.5.
So, the odds are even MORE in our favor. It’ll be a scary ride, but let’s hope we get there.
Jamal Murray Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (NBA Player Props)
This is another one of the bets popping in our OddsShopper Prop Tool this morning.
Yes, I know, you’re sitting there thinking, “why the hell is he telling me to bet so many unders today?!?”
Well, friends, I’m going to hit you with a refrain you’re going to hear a lot from me: “Unders aren’t fun, but they’re profitable.”
The OS Prop Tool found this Jamal Murray UNDER 34.5 PRA as another great +EV spot, and we’re going to trust the tools, data and science. It’s currently listed with almost a 55% expected win rate, and an OS Rating of 5 — which is VERY strong.
The Nuggets face the Grizzlies tonight, who have been better of late on the defensive end, especially since getting Marcus Smart back. We can expect Smart’s main task will be defending Murray and making his life as hard as possible.
Again, it might not be a super fun sweat, but we’re trying to book a W.
Bojan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Points (NBA Player Props)
We’re over here trying to get in the good graces of Lindy with this one. Yes, we’re going to fire on a Bojan Bogdanovic points prop tonight. I’m sure Eric is shedding a tear of joy somewhere in South Dakota or an airport, or wherever this guy is these days.
The Pistons travel to Boston tonight to take on the Celtics, and they’ve lost approximately 1 billion games in a row. Of course, they’re going to lose again tonight against the best team in the Eastern Conference, but that doesn’t mean Bojan is going to stop chucking.
According to our tools and simulations, Bojan has a 53% chance of hitting the over on 17.5 points.
He’s gone over 17.5 in five of his last seven games, and even in all of these losses, he’s still getting his jacks in. This cat loves to shoot, especially from deep. He’s averaging a shade over seven 3-point attempts per game, and when we’re betting a points prop, we LOVE that kind of action from 3-point range.
All it takes is a few of those to go down, and he’s halfway to the 18 we need.
This game has a 231 total, but I think there’s a good chance this one goes OVER, and if it’s going over, it’s likely due to the Pistons being able to keep up in some form or fashion.
Plus, this feels like a spot where the Celtics might rest a guy or two knowing they have the lowly Pistons in town.
This one’s for you, Lindy!
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Luka Doncic Under 38.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 2: Jamal Murray Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 3: Bojan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
= +485 at ESPN Bet
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