What an absolutely BRUTAL night. Nikola Vucevic took ONE shot in the first half in the most cupcake matchup for centers in the NBA. I can’t go out there and shoot the ball for these guys. I don’t know what else to do but get back in the saddle and strap up with some more NBA parlay picks for today, Tuesday, March 26th, including an NBA player prop pick for Zion Williamson.
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NBA Parlay Picks Today: Best Parlay Bet for Tuesday
Zion Williamson o33.5 Points + Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
For once, the line has shifted in YOUR favorite, dear reader. You get the better line here. While I was going to my process this morning, I had locked in Zion Williamson’s over 33.5 points + rebounds, and about 45 minutes after I published my YouTube video, in our Discord had told me the line dropped to 32.5.
So, you’re getting a little gift today. Usually, it’s the other way around.
Obviously, I liked it at 33.5, I’m going to like it at 32.5. So, whichever number you get it at, I’m in on it. But let’s talk about WHY I’m in on it.
Well, Zion has seen his usage rate start climbing as the Pelicans need someone to facilitate offense with no real point guard. In his last seven games, Zion has had a usage rate below 28.5% ONCE, and it was an outlier 23.4% where he only played 25 minutes against the Heat.
Not to mention, the Pels are now without Brandon Ingram for at least another week or two after he was injured in their game against the Magic on March 21.
Zion was already seeing an increase in touches and shot volume with Ingram on the floor, so, with Ingram OFF THE FLOOR, he’s likely to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 shot attempts and will be relied upon to be the catalyst for the Pelicans offense.
These are Zion’s career numbers with Ingram off the floor:
- 27 points
- 7.2 rebounds
- 5.4 assists
- 31.5% usage rate
In tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, OKC is sitting as a 1.5-point favorite despite the Pelicans being down their second-best player. Obviously, the linemakers believe this game will remain competitive, which is a feather in our cap in having Zion on the floor for a full run of minutes.
Zion Williamson definitely has 30-point upside here just based on volume alone. Add in his talent and ability to attack the basket, and the Thunder’s inability to rebound the basketball … this could be the Zion spot.
Bam Adebayo o10.5 Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
The second leg of our NBA parlay today features a guy who has been all over the glass lately, and we’re going to say he continues the trend.
So, we’re firing up the over on Bam Adebayo 10.5 rebounds tonight against the Golden State Warriors.
The Heat get the Warriors on their home floor in Miami, after Steph & Co. have been in South Beach for a full 24 hours, which could spell some trouble. I’m not saying these NBA players are out partaking in some extracurriculars, I’m just saying there’s a possibility.
Now, Miami is coming off a win where they punked the Cavs on Sunday and don’t have to play again until Friday when they get the hot-garbage Trail Blazers coming to town.
So, if we think they are focused on one game, which game do we believe it’s going to be?
Logically, it’s likely to be THIS game against a high-profile Western Conference team, knowing they could cut off their dominant hands and still beat the Blazers in their matchup.
If you’re a fan of looking at trend data, you will love one of the new features our product team has incorporated in the OddsShopper tools.
They’ve built in the ability to sort by last 5, last 10 and last 20 to see the hit rate on certain bets. So, if we look at Bam’s last 5, he’s cashed this in 60% of the games, and 50% in his last 10.
Obviously, we’re not using that as the thesis for our play, but it’s something interesting to look at nonetheless.
For the majority of this season, the Warriors have been a strong rebounding team, but it seems there might have been a shift in scheme or rotations over the course of their last four games.
They’ve allowed MULTIPLE teammates to have double-digit rebounds in the same game, which has been a RARITY for the Dubs this season.
I believe it mainly has something to do with them sacrificing the size of Kevon Looney to get Trayce Jackson-Davis on the floor more.
All of which is just a long-winded way of saying, the lack of size the Warriors have tonight could be a problem against the 6-9/6-10 Bam, who will have a 3-4 inch height advantage on anyone Golden State tries to throw at him.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Zion Williamson o33.5 Points + Rebounds
Leg 2: Bam Adebayo o10.5 Rebounds
= +265 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
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