The Dallas Mavericks got cooked by the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1. Luka Doncic continues to not look like himself, but, more importantly, the Thunder were able to win with through their bench and surplus of role players. Let’s dive into my reactions to Game 1 of the Mavericks-Thunder series, including a key defensive flaw that the Mavericks must figure out if they want to make this a competitive series, as we preview Thunder-Mavericks Game 2.
Reactions to Mavericks-Thunder Game 1 Reactions & Game 2 Preview
What Went Right & What Went Wrong? Mavericks-Thunder Game 1 Reactions
The Mavericks Couldn’t Defend the Corner | Mavericks-Thunder Game 1 Reactions
A key defensive weakness for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 was their performance in the corner. Oklahoma City’s role players routinely got open in that zone, and the Mavericks were unable to close out fast enough. Cason Wallace got three wide open looks from the corner. Aaron Wiggins got one, too. Josh Giddey got one and Luguentz Dort did too.
Not every shot from the corner converted, but with Dallas’ defense collapsing into the paint so easily, they run the risk of getting cooked by opposing role players. This was a problem for Dallas in the first round as they allowed 3.8 corner 3’s per game to the Los Angeles Clippers on a 38.8% conversion rate and in the regular season as they allowed 4 per game also on a 38.8% conversion rate.
In sum, the Thunder made five corner 3’s and missed plenty of quality open looks. Several of those opportunities came off offensive rebounds, which was another issue for the Mavericks — they lost the rebounding race by 13 and lost the second-chance points battle by 10. Dallas’ struggles in the corner didn’t make or break the game, but the five made shots ed for 15 points in a 22-point game.
Is Luka Doncic Doing Alright?
It’s still unclear how badly injured Luka Doncic is. He has been dealing with a lingering knee injury and hasn’t looked like himself early in the postseason. Doncic is now averaging 26.6 points, 10.2 assists, 8 rebounds and 4 turnovers per game with shooting splits of 38/16/77 over his last five starts.
The biggest issues for Doncic, at least relative to his regular-season numbers, has been perimeter shooting. Doncic averaged 4.1 makes on 10.6 attempts in the regular season but is now averaging 2.4 on 10.7 attempts in the postseason. That’s dropped to 1.6 and 9.8 over the last five, so while he hasn’t been afraid to shoot, the shots haven’t been going in.
Doncic’s matchup with Luguentz Dort didn’t go well in Game 1 — at least when the Slovenian superstar shot from beyond the arc. Reviewing his Game 1 stats reveals that Dort held Doncic to 0-2 from beyond the arc. But it wasn’t just Dort, who Doncic called a top-3 perimeter defender — Wallace also kept Doncic to 0-for-2, as did Holmgren. Doncic will have to figure out his shot or stop shooting to minimize the number of empty possessions for the Mavs.
What’s With Oklahoma City’s Rotations?
The Thunder gave playoff minutes to 13 players in Game 1. While three of those guys entered in mop-up duty (looking at you, Lindy Waters III, Ousmane Dieng and Kenrich Williams), 10 played meaningful minutes, far more than the usual playoff rotations of eight or nine guys.
Further, Oklahoma City gave 36 minutes to only two of their players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Josh Giddey, who started the game, played only 17, while Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins came off the bench to play 23. The OKC rotations raise important questions not just for basketball fans but also for daily fantasy players and player prop bettors.
Let’s focus on Giddey and Wiggins for a moment. Giddey recorded a playoff-low in minutes on Tuesday, while Wiggins recorded a playoff-high — and his sixth-most minutes off the bench this season. The fact Oklahoma City’s last four starters are so close in quality to their top seven guys makes predicting their performance on a nightly basis more difficult, as head coach Mark Daigneault can just right the hot hand.
Mavericks-Thunder Game 2 Odds & Preview
Thunder Open As 5-Point Home Favorites | Mavericks-Thunder Game 2 Odds & Preview
At bet365, the Oklahoma City Thunder have opened as a 5-point home favorite for Game 2, with the total trading at 218.5. That implies the books expect a 112-107 game for the Thunder. Doncic’s point total opened at 31.5 and his made 3’s total at 3.5. His turnover prop also opened at 4.5. For the most recent Luka Doncic odds, check out his odds page!
All the numbers suggest the books expect Doncic to figure something out for Game 2, but nothing I’ve seen in the film suggests that will happen. He needs to get healthy, and the one-day break between Games 1 and 2 probably isn’t enough, especially since the Mavs left him on the floor for 41 minutes in Game 1.
Doncic’s injury proved especially problematic on the defensive end, as his lack of hustle was partially responsible for the Thunder shooting so well from the corner. Doncic left Giddey open from 3 in a play that worked out favorably for him, and he also stumbled on a low-effort close-out of Dort that also worked out. If those plays don’t end the way they did, this story is probably a bigger one.
It’s also worth noting that after his poor Game 1 showing, Giddey is not available on the prop markets at bet365. Only the four other starters for OKC are available. It might be worthwhile to back him for an improved performance given how we saw Dallas defend him, but it remains to be seen if those markets will get posted before tip.
I’m not buying into a Doncic or Dallas bounce-back performance in Game 2 for those reasons, and you shouldn’t, either.
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