Hawks-Bulls Odds, Advanced Stats Preview & +EV Pick

Hawks-Bulls Odds

Odds via BetMGM
ATL ML: +125 | CHI ML: -155
ATL +3.5: -115 | CHI -3.5: -105
Over 221.5: -110 | Under 221.5: -110
Live Hawks-Bulls odds

Hawks-Bulls Preview & +EV Pick

I really liked the Atlanta Hawks heading into this season, largely because of Quin Snyder getting a full offseason to work with this team, the addition of Saddiq Bey and the development of Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks struggled all season, the latter players are on the shelf for this one, and I’m on the Bulls for this one.

Oh, and by the way, the team’s best three-man lineup combo overall was Bogdan Bogdanovic-Bey-Okongwu at +7.3, so I don’t feel that bad about being wrong about the Hawks this season… I’m definitely not coping.

The second-best justification for betting on the Bulls in this play-in game is their clutch net rating. Atlanta ranks a dismal 26th in clutch net rating (-12.8) while Chicago ranks an impressive second (+23.5). As far as individual players go, Young (-19.9) was terrible, largely because of his impotent clutch defensive rating (127.5). Only Okongwu (+5.3) was above zero. All five of Chicago’s recent starters, Dosunmu, White, Caruso, DeRozan and Vucevic, sport clutch defensive ratings of 97.1 or lower.

Finally, while I already went after Atlanta’s bad top lineup options, Chicago has a few good ones. While the best DeMar DeRozan–Nikola Vucevic combo, Ayo Dosunmu-DeRozan-Vucevic, clocks in a concerning +1.3 in net rating, it’s one of five lineups above zero with 500-plus minutes. The Hawks have four lineups above that threshold, and again, none that feature both Young and Murray.