The Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves head into the All-Star Break with a battle in Minneapolis. The Wizards won the first game between these teams with a 41-point performance from the Unicorn himself. Bettors looking for value on the markets for Thursday’s Wizards-Timberwolves contest should tail this NBA player prop at OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Wizards-Timberwolves NBA Player Prop | Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis Prop O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
The Minnesota Timberwolves have struggled to stop opposing bigs from beyond the arc this season. They have given up the second-most three-pointers to centers (1.1) and the 10th-most to power forwards (2.3) on the year. This includes a 6-for-10 showing from Kristaps Porzingis in the first meeting between these teams. Although the Wolves made some moves at the trade deadline, none will them help solve this problem.
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota’s starting center, just doesn’t defend the perimeter effectively. Although he can shut down the paint, he is the primary reason why the Wolves have struggled against bigs who can shoot. Of the 11.5 minutes Porzingis spent covered in his first meeting with the Wolves this year, Gobert was on him for three, or 26% of the time. Porzingis shot 3-for-3 from beyond the arc through that span.
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Although the Wizards have since slid center Daniel Gafford into their starting five alongside Porzingis, the Unicorn should still draw a fair amount of coverage from Gobert. Porzingis spends 100% of his minutes at center, per Basketball Reference. Further, Porzingis has averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game across 10 career matchups against Gobert, beating this number in seven of them.
Unsurprisingly, the books have stacked the juice on the over. But have they stacked it by a wide enough margin? The over has implied odds of 60%, which are below Porzingis’ raw hit rate against Gobert. Although the Wolves could get more creative after Porzingis toasted them in November, this player prop is still worth taking at DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to there can turn a $5 moneyline wager into $150 in bonus bets!
Best NBA Wizards-Timberwolves Player Prop: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-150 for 0.75 Unit) at DraftKings
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