The Miami Heat did it again. They found a way to steal a game on the road, tying this series back up at one game apiece. They’ll now return to their home floor with a chance to take the series lead. Let’s attack Kevin Love and Michael Porter Jr. on the NBA player prop markets. Want more Nuggets-Heat player props for Game 3 of the NBA Finals? Well…
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Nuggets-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Kevin Love
Kevin Love O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Although Kevin Love isn’t one of the most exciting options on the player prop market, his odds should stand out to sharp bettors. Love finally got re-inserted into the starting lineup for Game 2 and proceeded to shoot 2-for-6 from beyond the arc in 22 minutes. Both the shot volume and playtime were there, and Love drew primary coverage from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray — not exactly the best perimeter defenders.
Love’s minutes have fluctuated all throughout the playoffs, but he is still averaging 18.3 minutes, 1.6 made 3-pointers and 4.4 attempted 3-pointers per game. He has made at least a pair of 3-pointers in 19 of his 17 playoff appearances (58.8%) on a conversion rate of 36.5%. This roughly alines with what Love accomplished in 21 regular-season games with the Heat, through which he averaged 19.9 minutes, 1.4 made 3-pointers and 4.8 attempted 3-pointers on a conversion rate of 29.7%.
Again, this play comes down to the odds. The total of 1.5 is fair, but we can buy the over at the ridiculous price of OddsShopper’s market-based model. If you’re yet to get in the game at BetMGM, you can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000.
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Kevin Love Over 1.5 3-Pointers +170 for 0.5 Units at BetMGM
Nuggets-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Miami Heat have contained Michael Porter Jr. thus far. He shot 2-for-11 from the perimeter in Game 1 before shooting 1-for-6 in Game 2. While the drop in hot volume is concerning, MPJ also played only 26 minutes as Mike Malone tried to get better-performing players on the floor, like Bruce Brown. Sharp bettors know that just because we got a dud game from MPJ in Game 2 doesn’t mean he won’t see big minutes in Game 3.
Porter entered this series averaging 33.8 minutes, 2.8 made 3-pointers and 6.9 attempted 3-pointers per game, good for a conversion rate of 40.8%. He averaged 29, 3, and 7.3 in the regular season, respectively, and made 41.4% of his perimeter shots. In his lone trip to South Beach, Porter shot an impressive 5-for-13 (38.5%) from beyond the arc. I expect him to bounce back tonight, especially since he is currently 3-for-14 when taking uncontested shots so far in this series.
Again, this play also comes down to some market-based factors. Michael Porter Jr. sits at -130 (56.5%) to go over this number at Pinnacle, but because the public books know their target audience suffers from significant recency bias, we can buy the over at -110 (52.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Just make sure to play it on the 3+ made 3-pointers market, not the standard one, where this play costs -113 (53.1%). Yet to at FanDuel? Get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000 when you sign up!
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 3-Pointers -110 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
