Somehow, the Miami Heat have made it to the NBA Finals as an eighth seed — in the same season that the Florida Panthers accomplished the same feat! Let’s attack Bam Adebayo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the NBA player prop markets. Want more Heat-Nuggets player props for Game 1 of the NBA Finals?
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Heat-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 16.5 Points
Although Bam Adebayo hasn’t had the highest-scoring postseason, he’ll have to play a massive role against Nikola Jokic, and he should benefit from the extra minutes. That makes getting this prop at just 16.5 a steal. Adebayo averaged 20.4 points per game in the regular season and is averaging 16.8 points per game in the playoffs. Sure, he averaged only 14.9 points per game against the Boston Celtics, but that’s largely because of a poor defensive matchup — Boston spent a lot of resources locking down the interior.
The Denver Nuggets don’t try to defend the paint nearly as much as the other teams Miami has lined up against in the playoffs. Boston allowed only 42.1 points in the paint per game. The New York Knicks allowed just 42.5. The Milwaukee Bucks allowed 48.8, and Adebayo averaged a steady 17.4 points per game in that series while going over this number in three of five games. All three of Miami’s playoff opponents boasted above-average interior defenses in the regular season. In contrast, Denver has allowed 48.7 points in the paint per game during the playoffs and ranked 21st in the regular season.
The Nuggets win by outscoring their opponents. Leaving the opposition open for two-point shots matters very little when you can convert 38.6% of your 3-point shots, record a true shooting percentage of 59.5% and turn the ball over on only 11.7% of your possessions. Don’t expect the Nuggets to pivot off their defensive approach in Game 1. That should lead to plenty of open looks for Bam Adebayo, allowing him to sur a remarkably low prop total.
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points -105 for 0.75 Units at DraftKings
Heat-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
While Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray capture the headlines, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has quietly dominated in Game 1s this postseason. He is averaging 15.3 points per Game 1 in the playoffs and has made at least three 3-pointers in each of those games. Opposing defenses have struggled to adjust to Denver’s multifaceted, high-powered attack, often leaving Caldwell-Pope open from the corner.
Few teams are worse at defending the corner than the Miami Heat. They surrendered 4.3 corner 3-pointers per game in the regular season, an NBA high, and have surrendered 4 per game in the playoffs. Caldwell-Pope took advantage of Miami’s soft corner defense to shoot 6-for-7 (85.7%) from the perimeter against them in the regular season. Four of those made 3-pointers came at home, where Caldwell-Pope shot 43.3% from beyond the arc while averaging 1.82 makes per game.
The Heat have tended to focus on locking down opposing superstars, which has often benefited ancillary weapons like K in the postseason. Expect that to remain the case in Game 1 of this series, especially with Miami on short rest. K converted 60% of his perimeter looks for 2.57 3-pointers per game when the Nuggets played on three or more days of rest. Let’s turn this into a ladder bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing your first $5 wager!
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3-Pointers -145 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
