Yes sir! We scored another clean guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Scottie Barnes & More
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
I’m a sucker for centers that can shoot from deep. Alperen Sengün fits the bill perfectly after an offseason of working on his shot: He is averaging 0.8 3-pointers per game on 2.2 attempts per game, good for a conversion rate of 34.6%. Those aren’t game-breaking numbers, but it’s a major increase over last year, when he averaged 0.3 makes, 0.8 attempts and a conversion rate of 33.3%. He has at least one triple in seven of his 12 games.
We’re backing Alperen Sengün tonight largely because of this matchup. The Memphis Grizzlies excel at defending the rim: Jaren Jackson Jr. and company have allowed the fewest points in the paint per game (41.7). However, they have also allowed the most above-the-break 3-pointers per game (12.6) on a 40.8% conversion rate. Centers are averaging only 0.8 per game against them, but power forwards are averaging 3.1 — second-most.
Sengün’s 3-pointers prop sits right at 0.5 with the juice at a flatline -115 in most spots. While he is a point center, not a power forward, we’ve seen players in similar roles have decent nights from beyond the arc against Memphis. Victor Wembanyama shot 2-for-6 from deep against them last week. Lauri Markkanen went 4-for-9 without Walker Kessler and 4-for-6 with him in the mix. Kelly Olynyk went 3-for-4 off the bench in the latter game. Nikola Jokic went a bad-for-him 1-for-4 but still notched a triple. I’m on both the standard total and the two-plus at odds of +400 on DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings promo code if you’re new to the sportsbook.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Aleperen Sengün Over 0.5 3-Pointers -115 at DraftKings
Desmond Bane Player Prop
We’ve got another bet for tonight’s Grizzlies-Rockets game, this one for wing Desmond Bane. With Ja Morant and Marcus Smart sidelined, Bane has had to step up: his season average of 34.9 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) jumps to 37.5 without Smart.
Unfortunately for Bane, he draws a Rockets defense that allows the fewest points per game to shooting guards (18.5). The Rockets cough up a roughly league-average number of rebounds and assists, to them, but that’s where the market comes into play.
Our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Desmond Bane Under 37.5 PRA -120 at MGM
Scottie Barnes Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers just coughed up 152 points to the Atlanta Hawks in regulation last night. Of those 152 points, 74 (48.7%) were scored in the paint. Indiana now leads the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game (63.5) by 6.4. They also lead the NBA in shows allowed in the restricted area by 3.6.
Few players stand to benefit more from this matchup than budding star Scottie Barnes. Barnes ranks third on the Raptors in both shots attempted in the restricted area per game (4.1) and drives per game (9.2). He trails Pascal Siakam in both metrics, but Siakam has been less efficient when driving this year, scoring 0.4 points per drive to Barnes’ 0.6.
Barnes and the Toronto Raptors played last night as well, but the 22-year-old is averaging 36 minutes and 24 points per game when playing without rest on a two-game sample this year. Importantly, Barnes is also averaging 19.6 points per game on the year, which is well below where the books are taking action on this NBA player prop.
You’ll find Barnes’ points total set to 18.5 with the juice stacked on the under at public books and on the over at sharp ones. Buy the over -105 on BetMGM and consider laddering the 25-plus at +360 on FanDuel. New to OddsShopper and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 18.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
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