Let’s go — yesterday’s article cashed tickets for Anthony Edwards and Myles Turner with ease, as both players stayed under the point and rebound props, respectively. Today, we’ve got the Boston Celtics hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers early, then we’ve got the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Dallas Mavericks late. I’ve dug up two NBA player props with the assistance of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Chet Holmgren & More
Josh Giddey Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder earned the right to host the Dallas Mavericks this round, and while everyone is still distracted with the Minnesota Timberwolves getting out to a 2-0 series lead over the Denver Nuggets, it’s worth discussing what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company could do after sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round.
The Mavs did a lot well in the first round, but they didn’t defend the corner effectively. The Mavs coughed up 3.7 corner 3’s per game on a 38.9% conversion rate, which, while not terrible, certainly isn’t good. Every team that gave up more corner looks on a per-game basis has been eliminated. The corner was also a problem for the Mavs in the regular season, as they surrendered four corner 3’s per game on 38.8% shooting.
The Thunder have a number of role players who can perform well from the corner. In the regular season, Cason Wallace (0.7) and Luguentz Dort (0.6) led them in corner 3’s per game. But in the playoffs, it’s Josh Giddey (1.5) who has taken over as the lead corner sharpshooter. He averaged a whopping 2.5 attempts from that zone per game.
Time will tell if the Thunder choose to keep letting Giddey cook from the corner, but after the opening-round returns, it’s unclear why they would move away from him. Giddey averaged just a single 3-pointer per game in the regular season but averaged 2.3 in the series against the Pels. At odds of +165 on bet365 to hit just a pair of treys, I’m riding with the hot hand in Game 1 for a surprisingly good payout.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Josh Giddey 3-pointers live odds page!
Chet Holmgren Player Prop
We’re sticking with tonight’s Mavericks-Thunder game for this Chet Holmgren player prop pick. We’re backing the rookie big man to stay under 8.5 rebounds per the advice from our positive expected value (+EV):
You can get Holmgren at +105 to stay under 8.5 boards, which is beating the market by a healthy margin. Most other public books are in the +100 to -105 range, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, taking action on this same wager for -113.
Our model works by indexing the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusting them for hold, book sharpness and more; then projecting the true odds (a breakeven price) with that information. If a bet is available for odds longer than its true odds, you’ve found a +EV spot!
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Chet Holmgren rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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