The NBA is back in action with a five-game slate tonight, and I’m looking forward to sweating out some NBA player prop bets. My full cards are now at 198-183-10 (+27u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings will play the Cade Cunningham-less Detroit Pistons last night. Both squads will play again tomorrow, with the Kings scheduled to play at the Charlotte Hornets and the Pistons scheduled to host the San Antonio Spurs. Despite the shaky schedule and blowout potential, this spot is a fantastic one for De’Aaron Fox.
The Pistons are not good at basketball, but they’re especially bad versus point guards like Fox. Detroit ranks 29th in points allowed to point guards per game (27.5). The team ranks 30th over the last 30 games (29.4).
More importantly, Detroit struggles to stop the shots Fox takes. On a per-game basis, the Pistons allow the second-most shots in the non-restricted paint (9.7) and in the mid-range (5.2). Fox takes 6.6 shots in the former zone and 2.5 in the latter, good for 42.3% of his field goal attempts. Fox even ranks third across the NBA in shots taken per game in the non-restricted paint.
The Pistons also commit a ton of fouls. Detroit ranks 30th in free-throw attempts allowed per game (27.7) and 29th in opponent free-throw rate (31%). Fox is making 72.1% of his free throws this year, so that could be another major source of points for him.
You’ll find Fox trading at odds of -110 to sur the 27.5 at ESPNBet. Several other books have jacked that number up to 28.5 already, including Pinnacle, a sharp book. Fox is averaging 28.3 points per game this year with a median showing of 29. The blowout potential may scare some bettors away, but Fox is averaging 29.2 points per game in wins. He beat this number in six of Sacramento’s nine double-digit wins this year.
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Over 27.5 Points -110 at ESPNBet
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will play the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight in Florida. The Magic last played on Sunday and won’t play again until Friday, putting them in a much better spot than the Timberwolves, who also last played on Sunday but will have to play again tomorrow. Still, I’m fading Paolo Banchero in this spot because of Minnesota’s excellent defense, and OddsShopper recommends getting action on the under, too.
Minnesota’s defense has been elite this year. The Timberwolves rank first in defensive rating on the year. Teams have begun to figure them out a bit — they rank just 12th over the last seven games — but a bounce-back showing could be in the cards here.
Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 28.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
We’re going back to the Timberwolves-Magic well for this one — we’re fading one member of Minnesota’s rotation against Orlando’s stingy defense. The Magic aren’t as good as the Wolves on defense, but they still rank fourth in defensive rating and 10th over the last seven games.
The Magic have been especially tough for opposing shooting guards. Orlando ranks sixth in points allowed per game to the position this year (21) and third over the last seven games (18.8). Edwards does see time at other spots, but 72% of his minutes come at the two.
It’s Orlando’s tough perimeter defense that makes Edwards’ under so sharp today. Ant leads the Wolves in above-the-break 3-pointers made (2.3) and attempted (5.9) per game, but Orlando ranks sixth in above-the-break 3-pointers allowed (8.7). The Magic also rank ninth in 3-point percentage allowed from all zones (35.9%).
Edwards is a high-volume guy, so he should get plenty of chances to beat this number tonight, but Minnesota’s looming matchup with the Boston Celtics could lead head coach Chris Finch to play fewer minutes than normal in hopes of keeping Edwards fresh. Edwards is averaging just 26.8 points per game this year with a median showing of 27, so the books are putting a lot of faith in him by setting his total at a lofty 30.5. His home-away splits also point to value as Edwards is averaging just 24.9 points per game on the road with a median showing of 26.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 30.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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