Yesterday was a bit weird — we lost our Immanuel Quickley and Luke Kennard plays, but because I ended up laddering Dejounte Murray to 35, and because of some non-article picks you can find on my NBA player prop betting.
Looking for a Lakers-Clippers player prop for tonight’s late game? Click here for my top bet!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Lauri Markkanen & More
C.J. McCollum Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans don’t have a ton of viable perimeter shooters, which is what makes C.J. McCollum so important to their offense. The veteran point guard has been lethal from beyond the arc this year, converting 43.4% of his looks for 3.4 3-pointers per game, which have helped him average a steady 19.4 points despite playing alongside Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
McCollum now takes on the Utah Jazz, who, over the last 15 games, have allowed the seventh-most above-the-break 3-pointers per game (10.2) while playing at the NBA’s second-fastest pace (102). Over the last seven games, the Jazz have allowed the fourth-most points (31.5) and the seventh-most 3-pointers (3.9) to point guards while playing at the fourth-fastest pace (101.8).
We’ve seen McCollum line up against the Jazz five times since his arrival in New Orleans. He is averaging 23.2 points per game with a median showing of 24. This December, he scored 22 versus Utah alongside Ingram (26) and Williamson (21), largely because of his 4-for-10 performance from beyond the arc. McCollum is now averaging 19.4 points per game on the year with a median showing of 19 — yet his points prop is trading at 17.5.
The Pelicans are in a favorable spot scheduling-wise. We last saw them in action on Friday, and, after tonight, we won’t see them in action again until this Friday. McCollum has played three games with three or more days of rest this season, and those appearances all went swimmingly: he scored 24 in the season opener, 20 in his return from an injury and 23 after a three-day break in December. If the Jazz keep this one close, expect a heavy dose of New Orleans’ starters, allowing McCollum to clear this number and possibly the 20 (+125 at FanDuel) and 25 (+400 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick:
The Brooklyn Nets will host the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are down both starting center Mitchell Robinson and now backup center Isaiah Hartenstein, leaving Jericho Sims, Precious Achiuwa and Julius Randle as the primary healthy bigs. There could be some problems in the paint for the Knicks tonight, but I don’t expect many problems on the perimeter: over the last 10 games, New York ranks fifth in above-the-break 3-pointers allowed (8.5) and third in corner 3-pointers allowed (2.7) while playing at the 10th-slowest pace (97.8). I’m fading sharpshooting guard Cam Thomas tonight, and OddsShopper recommends doing the same. Thomas’ scoring output depends on perimeter shooting — 31.8% of his field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. Thomas has not cleared the 19-point threshold this season without a triple. He needed four just to score 20 versus New York before the OG Anunoby trade. Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below! NBA Player Prop Pick: Cam Thomas Under 18.5 Points -120 at FanDuel I already talked a bunch about the Utah Jazz, so let’s talk about their opponents, the New Orleans Pelicans. While it’s a pace-up spot for New Orleans, it’s a pace-down spot for Utah. The Pelicans rank 15th in pace on the year (99.4) but are 27th over the last 10 games (96.5). That should help them keep Lauri Markkanen under his lofty points prop of 24.5. The last time the Jazz faced the Pelicans, Markkanen scored exactly 24 points. It was a relatively slow game, with both sides getting only 95 possessions. Markkanen shot an inefficient 37/25/100, taking a whopping 12 3-pointers but converting only three of them. While he could benefit from positive shooting regression in this spot, his underperformance on the road is another key source of value. The Jazz are a great home team but aren’t so great outside of Salt Lake City, and Markkanen is no exception. The Jazz are just 7-16 when playing away from home while Markkanen is averaging 0.6 fewer points per game. Markkanen’s average road performance (23.6) and median road performance (24) both point to value here. He has stayed under the 24.5 in four of his last five road games as well. The Pelicans have also fared well against big men of late. New Orleans ranks third in points allowed per game to both power forwards (20.5) and centers (19.6) over the last 15 games. They rank ninth to power forwards (21.2) and first to centers (15.2) over the last seven. At odds of +100 via DraftKings, back Markkanen to have another sub-par night as a scorer. NBA Player Prop Pick:
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
Cam Thomas Player Prop
Lauri Markkanen Player Prop
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
