Yeah, Monday wasn’t fun for this column. We went 0-3 — I’ll note that the Golden State Warriors choosing to have Draymond Green come off the bench caught me off guard, and I probably wouldn’t have faded Stephen Curry on the assist markets if I knew they would do that, but the other two picks just got cooked. My full NBA cards are now sitting at 219-208-11 (+23u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jamal Murray & More
Jamal Murray Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will visit the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The 76ers just played the Houston Rockets early on Monday afternoon, so while it is a back-to-back, they will have had an extra few hours of rest. The Nuggets are coming off a full day off, beating the Pacers at home on Sunday.
Jamal Murray is a sharp fade today. While the Nuggets have listed most of their starting five as probable, which could lead to Murray playing without Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon, I’m not worried about that outcome — and I suspect Murray would be the first of their three probable players to sit, anyway.
Murray’s point total sits at 23.5. He is averaging 20.6 points per game on the year and 22.1 on the road. His median on the year (20) and in away games (21) both point to value, too. Although Murray’s scoring picked up in December and early January, it’s been on shooting splits of 50/37/85. He has never shot better than 47.7% from the field, so some regression should be in the cards.
Philadelphia has been a tough matchup for point guards. They have allowed the second-fewest points per game to the position this year (22.5) at the fewest through the last 15 games (20.1).
You’ll find Jamal Murray trading at 23.5 points across the market, but the price for the under does vary. It’ll cost you only -110 at DraftKings, ESPNBet and BetMGM, but it’s at -111 at Pinnacle. The under 22.5 is down to +100 at FanDuel. I suspect the latter book is on the right side of this line, so don’t be surprised if this one closes a point lower. The best deal on this one is at BetMGM: new s can score $158 in bonus bets just by wagering $5 after g up!
NBA Player Prop Pick:
The Phoenix Suns haven’t had their Big Three together for very many games, but, when they do, Bradley Beal is averaging only 3.8 assists per game. He cleared the 4.5 in just three of those games. With neither Kevin Durant nor Devin Booker on the injury report, I’m fading Beal on the assist markets, and OddsShopper recommends doing the same. The Suns will play the Sacramento Kings tonight. While the Kings aren’t a great defensive team, they’re not giving up a ton of assists to wings (the Suns are using Beal at the two and three). They rank seventh in assists per game to twos (4.8) and 12th to threes (3.9). Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below! NBA Player Prop Pick: Bradley Beal Under 4.5 Assists +120 at ESPNBet The Los Angeles Clippers won’t have center Ivica Zubac tonight. While that usually wouldn’t affect the game of a bench point guard like Russell Westbrook, it did in the first game Zubac missed. Westbrook played 29 minutes, nabbed eight rebounds and dished 13 assists in that contest. I expect a similar uptick in his performance tonight. The Clippers will play the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder just fell to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Although they have played efficient defense this year, this is a rock-bottom number that Westbrook has cleared in all three of his appearances against them with the Clippers, including a 13-rebound, four-assist showing earlier this season. For all of OKC’s defensive successes, they haven’t limited point guards on the glass or as ers. The Thunder have coughed up the seventh-most rebounds per game to ones (6.7) and 16th-most assists (8.8). That’s more than vulnerable enough to warrant a wager on Westbrook — once a triple-double machine — to tally at least 10 combined assists and rebounds. NBA Player Prop Pick: Russell Westbrook Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists -120 at Fanatics Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
Bradley Beal Player Prop
Russell Westbrook Player Prop
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