The bad news: yesterday’s article went 1-2. The good news: my full cards were profitable, netting us over a unit and bringing us to 184-159-10 (+35u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Aaron Gordon Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will visit the Golden State Warriors tonight in a spot where I really want to fade Denver’s starters. Both teams will play again tomorrow, with the Nuggets hosting the Orlando Magic and the Warriors hosting the Detroit Pistons. The Nuggets will then host those same Pistons on Sunday for their third game in four days.
The Warriors haven’t done everything well this year, but they’ve at least played effective defense — at least close to the rim. Golden State has allowed the fewest made shots per game in the restricted area (13.1) on the 10th-lowest conversion rate (65.1%). They have allowed the most made shots per game in the non-restricted paint (11.9) on the highest conversion rate (51.6%).
Golden State’s ability to limit points near the rim hurts no one on Denver more than Aaron Gordon. Gordon attempts a team-high 6.5 field goals per game in the restricted area, good for 63% of his overall shot attempts. Across two games against the Warriors, he is averaging exactly 15 points per game while going 6-for-7.5 (80%) in the restricted area. The math says his absurd efficiency near the rim should regress — and even minor regression is a big deal because of where you’ll find the total set (14.5).
Gordon clocks in at odds of -120 (54.5%) to stay under the 14.5. He has failed to clear this number in only 15 of his 29 appearances (51.7%), which isn’t quite the win rate we look for on these odds. However, the home-away splits point to clear value. Gordon has stayed under the 14.5 in 11 of his 16 road games (68.8%). His average of 13.4 points per game this year even dips to 12.1 on the road. Look for Gordon to have a forgettable game in his first road start versus the Warriors this year.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 14.5 Points -120 at Fanatics
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
What did I say about fading the starters for the Denver Nuggets tonight? We’re also getting action down on this Nikola Jokic under. While the NBA media may have you thinking he averages a triple-double per game, Jokic has stayed under the 10-assists mark in 21 of his 34 appearances (61.8%) while averaging 9.1. Like Gordon, the road has been unfriendly for Joker — he has stayed under double-digit assists in 11 of his 17 road games (64.7%). I don’t expect Jokic to buck those trends tonight, and OddsShopper doesn’t, either.
Jokic has played eight regular-season games against the Warriors since the 2021-22 campaign, and he averaged 9.3 assists through that sample. That rate drops to 7.7 when he plays them in San Francisco.
Scheduling and matchup aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists -120 at Fanatics
Victor Wembanyama Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks just got handled by the Indiana Pacers last night. They’ll now have to visit the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and, while this would usually be a good spot to fade Milwaukee’s starters (I may get some action on their unders later), I’m also excited about backing Victor Wembanyama from the perimeter.
Wemby has had a shaky transition to the NBA, especially as a long-distance shooter. He averages 1.4 per game on a disastrous 4.9 attempts — good for a brutal 29.4% conversion rate — but things are starting to change. Over his last seven games, Wemby is averaging 1.6 makes on 4.3 attempts (36.7%).
The matchup is a pretty good one for Wembanyama. Milwaukee’s big frontcourt hasn’t always closed out well on the perimeter. The Bucks are allowing the sixth-most made 3-pointers per game to opposing centers both this season (1.2) and through the last seven games (1.2). In San Antonio’s last game against Milwaukee, Zach Collins started for Wembanyama and shot 4-for-7 from deep.
You’ll find Wembanyama priced at odds of +116 at Caesars to record a pair of triples. That’s a great deal, especially given what we saw from Collins a few days ago. Wembanyama should also benefit from playing this one at home. Head coach Gregg Popovich has been giving him two extra minutes in home games versus road games, and Wembanyama is averaging 1.7 3-pointers per game in San Antonio. Look for the superstar rookie to catch Milwaukee’s defense off guard for a couple of 3-pointers.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
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