We’re up to 7-3 in this column over the last five days, which, while not perfect, is more than good enough to turn a profit. We easily cashed a Zion Williamson under last night and missed a Jrue Holiday under by the hook. It’s a thin NBA slate today, but we’ve got a pair of games on TNT, and I’ve found a few high-value spots with the help of OddsShopper . In today’s article, I have NBA player prop picks for Stephen Curry and Jalen Johnson.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Jalen Johnson Player Prop
I saw a Jalen Johnson player prop trading with -115 at Fanatics, giving us a smidge of edge breathing room.
I want action on Johnson’s points under because the Dallas Mavericks have figured out how to defend the paint. Since the All-Star Break, Dallas ranks sixth in points in the paint allowed per game (46.3) and third in field goals allowed in the restricted area per game (14.4). Johnson thrives in those zones, leading the Hawks with 10.3 points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break with 32% of his made field goals coming from the restricted area.
While we’re fading Johnson as a rebounder for mostly market-based reasons, some projection-based reasons the conclusion as well. While he is averaging 8.8 rebounds since the All-Star Break, those have come on an average of only 13 rebound chances, giving him a 67.9% conversion rate. That’s one of the highest rates in the league and doesn’t align with the 60.8% rate he recorded before the All-Star Break.
NBA Player Prop Pick: live odds page!
Stephen Curry Player Prop
With my top pick out of the way, let’s get into one of my favorite bets from OddsShopper all before beginning my research. This Stephen Curry player prop stood out before I dove much deeper into the card. We’re fading Stephen Curry against the Houston Rockets.
This is close to a do-or-die game for Houston — they have a 2% chance at scoring the final play-in tournament spot, but they’re competing with the Golden State Warriors for it. The Warriors have a three-game advantage that would be cut into if Houston can win this one, and with the Rockets sitting at an NBA-best 26-11-1 ATS at home, they should put up a fight here. The Rockets have allowed the second-fewest assists to point guards this season (7.4), the third-fewest assists overall (24.4), and the third-fewest overall assists when playing at home (23.2).
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the lines from across the market; adjusts for factors such as book sharpness, hold and more; and uses those numbers to generate a breakeven price (or “true odds“) for each wager. When a line is available for longer odds than the true odds, the model tells us to bet on it. That’s what we see with this Curry bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry assists live odds page.
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