The NBA roars on — although it’s certainly taking a bit of a back seat to March Madness at the moment. Today, I’m back with NBA player prop picks for De’Aaron Fox, Grayson Allen and Brandon Miller. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards this year sat (as of Thursday) at +17.6u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for De’Aaron Fox & More
Grayson Allen Player Prop
When I place my NBA player prop bets in the morning, I begin by perusing the schedule, then I check the injury report, and, after that, I check OddsShopper before doing some quick research of my own. Plenty of options near the top of today’s model picks stand out, but few more so than this Grayson Allen bet. He is -140 to stay under 3.5 3-pointers at bet365.
While Allen has been on fire lately, sinking four-plus treys in six of his last nine games, he has done so while shooting a ridiculous 54.9% from beyond the arc. Allen is averaging 2.9 3-pointers per game this year on a far more realistic (but still impressive) 48.2% conversion rate. He is a career 41.5% shooter from beyond the arc. His current production probably isn’t sustainable, and this spot is a great one to sell high.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It takes the betting odds from across the market; adjusts based on hold, book sharpness and more; and uses that information to produce the breakeven odds for each bet. When we can find that bet trading at a sportsbook for longer odds than the breakeven price, we attack, which is exactly what we see with this Allen wager — Pinnacle has the same bet priced at -182:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll (ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Grayson Allen Under 3.5 3-Pointers -140 at bet365
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
De’Aaron Fox has two bets that were trading just a squeeze below the threshold for positive expected value (+EV): his assists under (5.5) and his points under (24.5). But when we combine the two for his points and assists prop at Fanatics, we can get him to stay under 31.5 for odds of -125. That gives us roughly 1.5 extra points and assists worth of breathing room relative to most of the market. While we’re paying -125 for this one, if you’ve got a spare profit boost at their book (they’re giving away 10 every day), make sure to use it.
Fox will take on the Orlando Magic tonight. The Magic have been a matchup nightmare lately, allowing almost no production in the paint while posting elite defensive numbers. The Magic rank third in defensive rating this year (110.8) and first since the All-Star Break (106.2). They rank 10th in points allowed in the paint this year (47.9) but jump to fifth since the pause (44.9). That’s a big deal for Fox, who takes 49.7% of his field goal attempts in the paint.
The assists won’t come easy for Fox today, either. The Magic have allowed the fewest assists per game this year (23.9) and the third-fewest since the All-Star Break (23.7). Point guards haven’t fared as poorly as some positions, as Orlando ranks fourth in assists allowed per game to the position (7.9) and eighth over the last seven games (7.4).
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 31.5 Points & Assists -125 at Fanatics
Brandon Miller Player Prop
Let’s wrap up the card with a Brandon Miller under. The rookie forward has looked impressive for the Charlotte Hornets this season, especially once LaMelo Ball went down, but the books might just be a bit too high on him today — that, or they’re hoping to get public bettors to invest in some of his overs.
Miller is trading at odds of +105 to stay under 2.5 3-pointers at DraftKings. He is averaging 2.4 3-pointers per game since the All-Star Break, but over that 14-game sample, he recorded three or more in only five of his outings, leaning on a trio of games with four to inflate his average.
Miller takes on the lowly Atlanta Hawks this evening. While it’s true that the Hawks can’t stop just about anything right now, Miller still has to get the ball in the hoop, which he struggles to do on the road and versus Eastern Conference opponents.
Miller’s 3-point percentage (36.8%) dips when he plays away from home (36.2%) or in-conference (35.2%). And, despite his increased volume, he has been much less efficient since the All-Star Break (31.7%).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Miller Under 2.5 3-Pointers +105 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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