After a strong 9-3 showing to start the week, Friday’s 1-2 performance dropped us to 9-5. Still, because of some non-article picks you can find on my NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
LaMelo Ball Player Prop
Look, LaMelo Ball is not an efficient shooter. His shot chart tells you that much: his shooting splits of 43/36/87 aren’t impressing anyone, least of all me. However, his last few games have gone even poorly than usual — he is shooting a truly dreadful 35/17/80 through that stretch. But instead of expecting him to stay cold, we’re buying the dip on him.
When the Hornets dealt Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat, they opened the floodgates for Ball’s scoring. Ball averaged 18.5 points per game with Rozier in the lineup this season. He is averaging 29.3 without him, and that includes two of the last three games we discussed above. His brutal 17-point and 15-point performances still weren’t enough to drop his average without Rozier close to below the 25-point mark.
Before his last two games, Ball had eclipsed the 25-point mark in all nine of his starts without Rozier. He tallied 30-plus in seven of them and 35-plus in two. His shooting splits through that sample (49/44/88) were unsustainably high, but his splits through the last three games are also unsustainably low. Regression comes for us all, and in this case, it should benefit Ball tonight.
Tonight’s matchup with the Utah Jazz is a perfect get-right spot for Ball. The Jazz are allowing the sixth-most points per game to point guards over the last 15 games (28) and the fourth-most over the last seven (31.7). This corresponds to an uptick in their pace: Utah ranks as the fastest team over the last 15 (102.4) and the last seven (103).
You’ll find Ball’s points prop trading at 25.5 across the market. That’s way down from the 27.5 it was trading at right after the Rozier trade. Instead of buying that number, I bought the 25+ (-135 at FanDuel) for a slightly steeper price. I paired it with the 30+ (+200 at FanDuel) and 35+ (+550 at FanDuel) because most other books are offering those alt lines at far shorter odds.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
If you read yesterday’s column, you saw we cashed Damian Lillard under 6.5 assists. He tallied three. Despite the poor showing, the books have increased his assists prop to 7.5 for tonight’s game versus the New Orleans Pelicans. While the Pelicans are faster and less solid defensively than last night’s opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers, we’re still fading Lillard in the assists column. OddsShopper recommends doing the same. Lillard is averaging only 6.7 assists per game on the year. He has stayed under the 7.5 in 27 of 42 games (64.3%). New Orleans has allowed the 10th-fewest assists per game to point guards over the last seven (8.1). Over the last three, they have held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to five, Kris Dunn to four and Devin Booker to five. Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below! NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 7.5 Assists -105 DraftKings In one of tonight’s few games that doesn’t feature a team playing its second game in two days, the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the Boston Celtics. That means it’s a great day to fade James Harden as a er. Harden averaged just eight assists per game in the playoff series versus Boston last year, suring his prop (9.5) just twice. He averaged nine assists per game against them in the regular season and cleared the 9.5 twice. Boston’s defense has been even stingier against opposing guards this year. On the season, the Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game to point guards (7.8) and second to shooting guards (4.4). Over the last 15, they rank 12th to point guards (8.5) and sixth to shooting guards (4.5). With Ivica Zubac out, Harden has been playing the two more often as Russell Westbrook gets more run. Harden has been feasting as a er lately, averaging 10.2 assists per game since Christmas. However, he played the majority of those games at home. Harden is averaging only 8.2 assists per game on the road this year, and he only dished out nine in a home game versus the Boston Celtics right before Christmas. Overall, Harden has stayed under this number in 13 of 18 road starts (72.2%). The under 9.5 is just too good of a deal to up at -125 on bet365. You’ll find this same prop trading for -149 at Pinnacle, so we’re getting just under four percentage points of edge on the sharp book. OddsShopper also estimates the true odds for this bet to bet -127, which isn’t a ton of edge, but it’s more than enough for me to pounce on a number that will likely disappear well before tip. NBA Player Prop Pick:
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Damian Lillard Player Prop
James Harden Player Prop
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