Let’s go! Yesterday’s article went 3-0 with an all-under card. I’ve started my day with another tall glass of Haterade and have dug up three unders for this evening’s slate. My full NBA cards are now sitting at 212-198-10 (+25.4u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo & More
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors just took down the Chicago Bulls last night. They needed to score 140 points. Their stars didn’t play a ton of minutes: Stephen Curry played 35 and Klay Thompson logged 34. The Warriors have been pretty good on back-to-backs this year, sporting a 5-1 record without rest while holding opponents to only 109.4 points per game.
One thing Golden State does well, even without Draymond Green, is protect the rim. You kind of have to squint at the stats a little to see it, though: Golden State ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game over the last 10 (54.5), which isn’t great, but they lead the NBA in field goals allowed per game from the restricted area (13.4). It’s their defense in the non-restricted paint that is the issue: Golden State allows the most field goals per game in that zone (12.2).
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA’s best interior scorers, but he does much more in the restricted area than outside of it. Giannis takes 11.8 field goals per game in the restricted area — 62.1% of his total field goals — but just 3.1 in the non-restricted paint. Giannis converts 78.4% of his looks in the restricted area but 38.8% from the non-restricted paint.
It’s possible that Giannis chooses violence today and punishes the Warriors, but with his points prop trading up at 33.5, this is a great spot to fade him. Giannis has stayed under this number in 24 of his 37 appearances this year. Both his season average (31.2) and median (32) point to value as well. The Bucks also have a game scheduled against the Sacramento Kings tomorrow, so they may be more conservative with Giannis’ minutes. Lock in the under 33.5 for -120 at DraftKings before the value gets bid off the board.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
The Houston Rockets beat the Detroit Pistons in overtime last night. Star center Alperen Sengün needed to play 37 minutes, through which he scored 29 points, to clinch the win. The Rockets now must play the Boston Celtics tonight before playing the Philadelphia 76ers on early Monday afternoon. It’s a rough bit of scheduling for Houston, and the Rockets are trading as 16-point dogs today. With a blowout expected, I’m fading Sengün, and OddsShopper recommends doing the same. Boston’s defense has regressed from its peak under now-Rockets coach Ime Udoka, but the Celtics’ main issues are on the perimeter, not in the paint. The Celtics allow the third-fewest field goals in the restricted area (15.3) but the most from above the break (11.2). Sengün takes 41.2% of his shots in the restricted area. Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below! NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Under 22.5 Points -110 at ESPNBet Let’s wrap things up by fading Kyrie Irving. The Dallas Mavericks will have to lean on him heavily until Luka Doncic can return to the lineup, and, as a result, Irving’s points prop is trading at a ballooned 32.5 today. That’s a number Irving has cleared in just 10 of his 43 starts for the Mavericks. Irving has played seven games for the Mavericks that Doncic missed. He averaged 27.6 points per game across those appearances and cleared the 32.5 just twice with a median showing of 25. Irving did just drop a monstrous 44 points on the New York Knicks on Thursday, so it’s a great sell-high spot for us here. The New Orleans Pelicans are an underrated defensive team. The Pels rank seventh in defensive rating on the season. They’ve gotten better lately, too — over the last seven, New Orleans ranks tied for first (109.5) while playing at the fourth-slowest pace (96.7). I don’t expect much from Irving in this spot as a result. NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyrie Irving Under 32.5 Points -120 at Fanatics Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
Kyrie Irving Player Prop
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